Neither the Cavaliers nor the Celtics have been good follow's lately. But Boston's season-long struggles to cover at home make Cleveland the right play today.
Eastern Conference foes square off on Sunday at TD Garden when Cleveland pays a visit to Boston.
The Celtics have certainly not been a team to fear, even at the Garden where they are only 11-26 against the spread on their home floor this season. Boston is currently riding a three-game losing streak and a four-game skid against the number.
The Cavs have been much better straight up, winning their last three but posting a 0-3-1 ATS mark their last four overall. No need to worry though; the Cavs have the perfect prescription for today in the Celtics winning and covering the last two meetings against them with ease, including one right here on this floor back in February.
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The Celtics have played so poorly of late a 59 percent shooting night was not even good enough to grab a victory versus the Thunder last Wednesday night. They face a Cavs team that is 26-12 SU on the road and 21-16 against the number averaging 100.9 points per game while surrendering 95.8 points per game.
No line has yet been posted for this contest but based on our numbers the Cavs should be favored and if that is the case we have a system that tells us to play against NBA home underdogs coming off a home loss during the month of April. The last five seasons playing against those underdogs has produced a record of 41-15 ATS for 73 percent winners.
With home court all but secured, Cavaliers head coach Mike Brown could possibly be thinking of resting some of his starters. That’s unlikely here because they might face the Celtics in the playoffs and he will want to make sure his message is sent loud and clear.
We will back the better team overall and lay the price with the Cavs on Sunday as they roll an aging and tired Celtics squad.
Prokected Final Score: Cleveland-100 Boston-90