It has been a long time coming for the Dallas Mavericks, and now it is time to grab what is rightfully theirs. At this point in time, the NBA Championship is theirs to loose.
This will be long because it has to be considering the signifcance of the situation, but I will try to highlight and space to make it more bearable to read.
Explanation as to why series price over MLs for games 6 and/or 7 (unit size for practicality).
Scenario 1: Dallas wins game 6
(ML) risk 1 to win 2.2 @ +220 = +2.2
(series) risk 2.2 to win 2 @ -110 = +2
Scenario 2: Dallas wins game 7 (lost ML bet from game 6)
The ML in game 7 of Finals dropped from game 6 in 2005 for DET/SA, but rose in 2010 for BOS/LA. I have the feeling it drops if it goes 7 here, but keep ML the same here for demonstration.
(ML) risk 1 to win 2.2 @ +220 = +2.2
2.2 - the risked 1 from game 6 = +1.2 total
(series) risk 2.2 to win 2 @ -110 = +2
Scenario 3: Dallas loses game 7 (lost ML bet from game 6)
(ML) risk 1 to win 2.2 @ +220 = -1
-1 + -1 from game 6 = -2 total
(series) risk 2.2 to win 2 @ -110 = -2.2
For ML, you win .2 more if game 6 win and save .2 if game 7 loss, whereas a game 7 win for the series you win .8 more. The chances (odds wise and otherwise) of them winning game 7 are going to be equal if not greater than winning game 6. You also won't have to worry about nutting up again betting game 7 as you are already locked in.
Series bet is the call if you like Dallas to flat out win.
I first got the feeling that the Dallas Mavericks would win it all after the Game 1 win in LA. Then after they swept the series I absolutely believed it. Ten days ago I posted that I expected the Mavericks to end the series in Game 6
, and it looks good still. Here are 6 key advantages that the Dallas Mavericks have.
1) Destiny, Karma, whatever you want to call it. After all the stuff this team has gone through, it is unfathomable to see them lose this after coming all the way back and being one game away from the sweetest redemption possible.
History: 2006 Finals. Dallas up 2-0 with a 13 point lead with about 6 minutes to go in the 4th Quarter. The Heat pull off comeback to win by 2 aided by a multitude of questionable calls for Wade. In Game 4 Dallas was blown out. In Game 5 Wade gets call after call down stretch, including the go-ahead 100% phantom foul that seals it for Miami.
Mavs Howard calls an ill-advised timeout that prevents Dallas from forwarding ball with 1.9 seconds after Wade hit a free throw to put Miami up by 1, as the Heat win by 1. Heat win game 6 in Dallas by 3 points with Terry missing the last shot of the whole series, a 3 pointer that would have tied it at the buzzer.
The pain and anguish Dirk and Terry have from this that has propelled them through these playoffs to excel and perform in the clutch is beyond words. Here is the phantom call that put Heat ahead for the game, and the series for good:
2007. As the #1 overall seed, Dallas loses to the 8th seeded Warriors in 6, adding to the legacy of failure with possibly the biggest NBA upset ever.
2008. Kidd rejoinns the Mavs and they lose to 2 seed Hornets as a 7th seed in 5 games. Johnson is fired as coach, and the perception is they are finished as any outside contender.
2009. Rick Carlisle is hired as the new coach, and the 6th seeded Mavs upset a #3 seed in the Spurs, only to lose to the 2nd seeded Nuggets in 5.
2010. The 2nd seeded Mavs lose to the 7 seeded Spurs in 6. The perception is they have choked again and will never win.
All while this is happening we here nothing but how soft Dirk is and how Mavs are chokers and posers.
2011 NBA Playoffs
Dallas played well in regular season, and suffered through the injuries of Caron Butler in January (out for the year), and Dirk, who wasout for a few weeks in mid season. However, they managed to capture a 3 seed.
Portland was the popular upset pick, as Dallas was only -180 or so in the eyes of the NBA odds
makers, and nobody took Dallas as a serious contender at all. Dallas wins first 2, lost game 3 by 5, blew a 20 point 4th Quarter lead in game 4, won game 5, and won game 6 on raod. This showed tremendous resolve as they were able to respond that way after game 4 meltdown.
LA came into the NBA Playoffs as -375 to -400 betting odds
favorites. In Game 1 Dallas was down 16 in the second half, but closed it. They were down 5 with 3 minutes left, but they fought back and won. In Game 2 they won going away in the 4th as 7 point dogs. Game 3 saw them comeback down 7 in the 4th to win, and in Game 4 they completed the sweep winning by 30.
Conference Finals: Dirk drops 48 in game 1, but the Thunder win game 2. Dallas fights back and wins game 3 at OKC wire to wire and easily. The exciting Game 4 saw Dallas, down 15 with 5 minutes, comeback to tie, and eventually win in OT. They then sealed the deal in Game 5, as Dallas was down 8 in the 4th, only to comeback once again for a trip to the Finals
NBA Finals: The Heat win Game 1 going away in the 4th. Dallas was down 15 with 6 minutes in the 4th quarter of Game 2 and won to complete the biggest NBA Finals comeback ever, led by Dirk.
In Game 3 Heat win a close one, as they barely escaped falling 2-1. In Game 4 Dallas cameback down 9 in the 4th and win close with Dirk playing sick and injured, yet hitting clincher. Dallas pulls away closing 4th on a 17-4 run with amazing play from Terry, Kidd, Barea, Dirk, Chandler, Marion, whole team.
Game 6: Now here we are in game 6 of the Finals Mavs lead 3-2 against the same Heat team who did them in in 2006. You absolutely cannot fuking make this shit up. Look how they have responded to adversity. Look how huge Dirk has been to get his team here. Look how Terry came up last night, and the veteran Kidd, who lost his prior 2 Finals, also. They will win this.
2) Most resilient team ever, and experienced: I just outlined above in "2011" what this team has overcome. They have an undying resolve that will lead to a Finals victory. Kidd, Dirk, Terry, Marion, Chandler, all have 10+ years in the league who have been on contenders and now they are 1 fuking game from winning it after what they've been through in the cumulation of their careers. No matter what the score is, you can count on these guys to fight, and fight, and fight, til that horn blows. ONE GAME.
3) The Offense is finally rolling: First breakout game of the series for Dallas came at the perfect time. They shot 56.5% in game 5. Before that, they shot 37.3% in Game 1, 48% in Game 2, 40% in Game 3, and 39.7% in Game 4. In Game 5, Terry came up with the biggest shots with 21 total points, 8-12 shooting with Leborn on him.
Barea came up real big with 17 points, 4-5 from 3. Dirk 29 points 9-18. This is exactly what the Mavericks have been looking for all series. Every contributing player is playing with confidence right now (Peja doesn't count. I guess he isn't on the team anymore? wtf happened??). They know they can score on this Heat team and wear the Defense down
, and the confidence and shooting will carry over.
4) Closing in the 4th. Down 15 with 6 mins to go in game 2 and won: Down 9 in game 4 and won, even with Dirk off his game. They were down 4 in Game 5 with 4 minutes to go and won on 17-4 run to close. They nearly won game 3 also while down 9 points, but came up short on final shot.
In total they have 6 comebacks this postseason down 7 or more in the 4th. Clutch shooting is an obvious reason for comebacks, but they are also totally locking the Heat down. When a team has zero Offensive identity like the Heat, they will run it so too much where it is easy for the Defense to tunnel vision the go to player.
The Heat are running the shot clock down way too much, then the double team from Dallas comes, then comes the dump off, then comes panic and heavily a contested 20 foot brick. Then Dallas goes down and scores and D's up the exact same way. Heat are completely out of their offensive game at that point.
This happened to a varying degree in games 2-5, but Bosh hit the open shot in game 3. Also in Game 5, in mid quarter, Heat would hit low post open man as Chandler would wander out to help double. Carlisle adjusted to that, and Heat scored 4 points in the final 4 minutes.
5) Massive Coaching Advantage: Eric Spoelstra
is a 40 year old novice with zero prior coaching experience, was a video tape man until he became Riley's clipboard "bitch" for 10 years. Listen to him talk and I guarantee you will hear one of two things: 1) "stay the course" 2) "this is where we thrive".
He repeats this junk like a patheitc delusional kid who thinks he is offering profound and inspiring insight. He has zero charisma and holds no influence over his players. Queen ran right through him 1 month into the season . Also ask yourself how this fool keeps allowing his team to fail with massive 4th Q leads. They run nothing on Offense in crunch time, does nothing to get Queen going offensively. He's supposed to be a Defensive coach, yet didn't double Dirk in Games 2 or 4, only having Bosh on him for Game 2.
Now look at Rick Carlisle
, a 51 year old vet who's been in the business as HC for 10 years. 3 Conference Finals as a coach, NBA champion with Celtics as a player. His demeanor absolutely never changes and he is a stoic and calming presence for his players, which no doubt guides them and keeps them cool through all of these comebacks. On Defense, he is making the right calls to double at the right time. On Offense, he is calling the plays to put his players in position, and his quality insight on his plays helped spark the Game 2 comeback
6) Queen's Disappearing Act:
If she could have "flipped the switch", she would have done so back in Game 4, if not then absolutely in Game 5 in his self-proclaimed "biggest game of career
". Instead she scored 0 points in Game 4, and then 2 points in the 4th of Game 5 on a conceded layup in the finals minutes after missing 5 shots before that in the 4th. And the greatest part of all is she says she played good enough to win Game 5.
Any self-respecting player would have put up or shut up, instead she deflects responsibility. Queen also says she wins with defense. Oh? So what about 66.67% from Terry in game 5 for 21 points and the two clinching 3's shot right in Queen's face? She is Wade's puppet, and follows him everywhere, copies his clothing, and mocks Dirk after Wade starts it.
Also, there are rumors involving his girl friend and Rashard Lewis. First of all, Jordan wouldn't allow that kind of talk for a second. Second, Jordan, or any other great player, blocks all of the off court drama out and delivers no matter what. Not LeBron. James is a broken player and has always been so.
7) Miami is not ready for this: The only chance they have is if Wade goes off for 40 and the refs channel their inner 2006 and he gets 25 throws. Lebrone is done and Bosh sounds defeated in post game and rivals LeBron for the biggest choker in the league.
8) Refs will favor Dallas, if anybody. We saw it clear as day in Game 3, and Game 5 also had some qusetionable calls go the Mavs way. Cuban hasn't said a word all series and largely hasn't even been shown on TV in the crowd. He knows damn well his team benefits when he shuts up, and it has worked so far. The Refs will give some back to Dallas after 2006.
9) Those saying NBA will get a game 7 for sure have not a clue: It is a pipe dream conspiracy belief that NBA will always get what it wants. Just look at history: 2006, 3-2 Heat going into 6 could have easily gone 7, Heat close out and the refs favored them, not the Mavs for a game 7. 2007, Spurs sweep Queen for lowest rated Finals of all-time. 2008, Celtics-Lakers would have been a great 7 game series, Celtics win in 6 by 40 points. 2009, Lakers win in 5 for a boring Finals. How many Game 7's in the Finals did Jordan have? 0.