Denver's recent struggles play into better line value for Thursday's home tilt vs. Portland. Nab the Nuggets minus the points in the second half of TNT's doubleheader.
Our Thursday night NBA selection is on the Denver Nuggets at home minus the points over the Portland Trail Blazers.
This is very much a contrarian play, as Denver comes into tonight's game "ice-cold," as it has failed to cover in nine straight games. But six of those have come on the road, and Denver is still a very strong 18-3 over its last 21 home games.
One of those wins was over this Portland club on March 7. Denver won that game 118-106, and shot 59% while it held the Blazers to 43% field goal shooting.
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Carmelo Anthony led all scorerd in that game with 30, adding five assists to his ledger. J.R. Smith came off the Denver bench with 22 points and seven assists to negate Jerryd Bayless' 24 and five off Portland's bench.
And we get a great benefit from Denver's recent short-term performance: the line on this game is much more favorable than the seven points which Denver was favored by (and covered) just 3½ weeks ago.
Finally, it's worth noting that since 1991, in the regular season, home teams off a loss of 15+ points are 69% ATS vs. conference foes off a win of 15+ points, provided our home team's win percentage ranges from .550 to .715, and it is matched up against a .610 (or better) foe.
With Denver in off a 109-93 loss at Dallas, and Portland in off a 28-point blowout of New York, we'll fade the Trail Blazers tonight. Take Denver.
Free Pick: Nuggets -4½ (-110)