Jeremy Lin and the New York Knicks host the Atlanta Hawks this evening in an Eastern Conference showdown. See what odds the sportsbooks have on tap for us, as we try to cash in. Will "Lin-sanity" continue tonight?
5* graded play on the Atlanta Hawks as they take on the New York
Knicks set to start at 7:00 PM ET. The NBA odds makers have the Knicks favored
by 7.5 in this one with the total at 187.5. Lets breakdown this matchup and determine which sports betting angle we should take for our NBA picks.
Linmania continues in New York, but fortunately my plays against
the Knicks recently have all been winners and I am looking to fade what is
really a feel-good story. To clarify, I love the Lin story. It is great for
sports and it is great for our young athletes to see that hard work and
especially perseverance works. However, what doesn’t work is when irrational
exuberance takes hold and the public begins to bid up NBA betting lines to levels
that are overpriced.
The Atlanta Hawks have been flying under the Eastern conference
radar but have managed to have the best record of the non-divisional leaders
for most of the season. Recently, however, Orlando has played strong basketball
and have over taken the Hawks in the standings. Currently, the Hawks are in
third place in the Southeast division of the Eastern conference trailing the
Miami Heat by 6.5 games.
The Knicks have roared to the .500 level and currently are in
second place in the Atlantic division of the Eastern conference, four full
games behind the surprising Philadelphia 76ers. There has been much media and
public debate on how the chemistry of the Knicks will be once Carmello comes
back to the fold. I can’t predict with any certainty that it will be a better
Knicks team or a worse one, but I do know there will be a significant
adjustment period.
Simulator projections
My proprietary sports betting database and simulator show a high
probability that the Hawks will lose this game by fewer than seven points. The
simulator shows a high probability that the Hawks will have a big night from
beyond the arc and hit better than 39% of those shot attempts. In past games
Atlanta is 18-3 ATS when they hit between 39% and 45% of their three point shot
attempts spanning the last two seasons.
Money line system
Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a
record of 23-8 making 21.5 units per one unit wagered since 2006. Play against any
team using the money line off a loss against a division rival and now facing an
opponent off a road loss scoring less than 80 points. Atlanta has lost four of
five games and are 0-4-1 ATS. They lost 90-79 against the best record team in
the conference in Chicago, but played great defense holding them to just 39%
shooting.
Game
situations
Atlanta
is a solid 19-8 ATS making 10.2 units per one unit wagered in road games after
failing to cover three of their last four against the spread spanning the last
three seasons. New York is in a series of poor roles for this game noting they
are 15-26 ATS losing 13.6 units per one unit wagered as a favorite of 3.5 to
9.5 points over the last two seasons. Fine tuning this situation, the Knicks
are just 5-16 ATS losing 12.6 units per one unit wagered as a home favorite of
6.5 to 12 points spanning the last two seasons.
The
Knicks are off a poorly played home game and one that was a 5* Titan winner on
the NBA thread with John Ryan and played in the head-to-head contest with LT
Profits. The Knicks lost outright to the New jersey Nets 100-92 and were
installed as nine point favorites. In past games, the Knicks are a near
imperfect 1-10 ATS in home games off a home loss over the last two seasons.
NBA Pick: Take the Atlanta
Hawks.