Can the Boston Celtics win one against the Miami Heat in tonight's Game 3? Our NBA picks are locked in, and you might be surprised at where we are leaning.

The Western half of the bracket won’t have a sweep, as the Thunder took care of the Spurs in convincing fashion last night. Now it’s the Celtics turn to try and avoid a sweep at home, as they welcome in the Miami Heat for Game 3. The Celtics played excellent basketball in Game 2, but could not overcome Miami’s push in overtime.

Rajon Rondo had a fantastic game with 44 points and a near triple double. However, the rest of the Celtics did not show up when they were needed the most. Dwyane Wade scored 8 points in overtime to lead the Heat to a 2-0 series lead.

Now at home, the NBA odds makers have opened the line as an even game, however, big money on the Celtics has pushed the line to favor the home Celtics at -2. The matchup's total has also been bet up, and after opening around 177 points, it now sits at 180.5.

The public’s money is almost dead even on this game. Will the Celtics be able to bounce back in this series like the Thunder did, or will the Heat take a commanding 3-0 lead after this evening?

All out production

Rajon RondoThe Celtics struggled to find offense at key points in Games 1 and 2, which killed them. Game 1 was the entire game, but Game 2 was just the end of the game. Despite Rondo single handedly holding off a Heat run, he was not enough by himself.

Even though the Celtics Big Three had solid games, they went cold in the 4th quarter and in overtime. Paul Pierce fouled out on a questionable call, and that took all the air out of Boston. 

Another problem that faced the Celtics was their bench scoring. The Celtics bench scored a big-time seven points all together for Game 2. The Heat’s bench (normally just as unproductive) had 25 points, and Mario Chalmers had a huge night with 22 points.

Blue flames?

The questions I keep asking myself in this series are; are the Celtics that bad, are the Heat that good, or are the refs and the NBA in collusion? I think it’s a combination of the three, but mostly the first two. The Heat are that good and unfortunately for Boston and their fans, the Celtics aren’t at that level. They are old and tired., and it is starting to show 

However, I think going on the road is going to hurt the Heat more then the age will hurt Boston. I think Boston has a chance to get a game here in a big way. They almost won Game 2 on the road, and when playing at home, the Celtics greatly improve.

Boston’s defense is already great, but at home, their defense improves by an incredible 5 points per game. Along with that, the Heat aren’t exactly road warriors. Miami was 14-19 ATS on the road this season, and in the playoffs, they are only 3-2 SU on the road.

The Sharp Picks

Despite the amount of scoring that went on in Game 2, I’m looking the other way tonight, and adding the UNDER to my NBA picks. As I mentioned above, the Celtics’ defense takes several steps up when at home, and the Heat’s average road scoring drops two whole points from what their overall scoring is.

Also, I’m siding with the Celtics on the moneyline. Boston should have won Game 2, and their bench and role players will all have better games when playing on the parquet in TD Garden. Boston was 18-14-1 ATS at home this season, which includes two wins and two covers against the Heat.

My Picks: UNDER 180 ½ & Celtics -135