It’s a primetime showdown in South Beach as LeBron James and the Miami Heat host Carmelo Anthony and the New York Knicks. Tip-off is set for 8:00 PM ET at the American Airlines Arena. NY will be going for its third straight win over Miami.
It’s
been a rough week for the Knicks (7-11 SU, 4-14 ATS) who have lost seven
of their last eight games including back-to-back, double-digit road setbacks to
CNew York harlotte and Cleveland. Tuesday, the Bobcats blew out the Knicks 111-78, getting
the ATS victory as well as a +5.5 point underdog.
Anthony, who was playing with
an injured right thumb, went 0 for 7 from the field and finished with one
point. The next night in Cleveland, New York suffered a 92-81 setback as
Anthony struggled again getting just 15 points on 5 of 14 shooting.
Overall, Carmelo Anthony leads the Knicks in scoring
(23.6 points per game) but is shooting just 39.4 percent from the floor and
30.3 percent from downtown.
New York is now a disappointing 4-5 SU on the
road (3-6 ATS) but they’ve been a great play on the ‘under’ going 6-1 this season.
The Miami Heat (13-5, 8-10 ATS) defeated the struggling Pistons 101-98 on Wednesday at
The Palace of Auburn Hills. LeBron James led Miami with 32 points, played every
minute of the second half and made critical free throws down the stretch. Chris
Bosh added 27 points, shooting 12 of 15 from the field and finished the
back-to-back against the Cavaliers and Pistons with 62 points. Over his last
two games, the former Georgia Tech star is shooting 71.1 percent and hasn’t
missed a three-pointer or a free throw.
The Heat improved its record on the second
night of back-to-backs to 3-3 and upped its mark to 8-1 this season in games
without Dwyane Wade, who has missed six games in a row with a sprained ankle. Miami
is 7-2 at home with a spread record of 5-4. They’ve won two straight overall.
Speaking of Wade, he had what was called an
intense workout before Wednesday’s game and appears ready to return, possibly
tonight.
Food
for thought
What happens to Bosh’s ‘touches’ when D-Wade returns? Miami’s big man is averaging 25.7
points in games without him compared
with 19.9 points per game with Wade on the court. For the season, Bosh is
averaging 21.7 points per game, compared with an average of 20 points per game
for his career.
Knicks
Struggles
The Knicks are 1-7 in their last eight
outings and the pressure is mounting in New York to start winning. Including
their first-round exit in the playoffs last season, the Knicks are 21-29 since
trading for Anthony. He’s not the main reason for New York’s problems, just one of them. His acquisition hasn’t paid
off for NY like his departure from Denver has benefitted the Nuggets. That’s
not Anthony’s fault, but rather management’s for making such a one-sided deal.
Knicks head coach Mike D’Antoni has tried
several different lineup combinations in hopes of jump starting the offense, but
nothing has worked. Despite consecutive games scoring over 100 points against
Denver and Charlotte this week, New York has been held below 90 in five of its
last nine contests. D’Antoni is hoping the Knicks can get the offense going in a
hurry, but that will be tough against the Heat who are giving up just 91.8
points over their past six games.
What the odds makers think
As we have seen with most of the Heat's recent matchups, NBA odds makers have been shy when it comes to posting the lines. With Dwayne Wade's status still unknown, it has been difficult for them to set the sports betting lines accordingly. As I mentioned earlier, Wade is a huge asset to this team, but Bosh has filled in nicely in his absence. Either way, I expect the Heat to post points.
Given the current state of the Knicks offense, I am going to place my NBA picks on this game's total, expecting another sub 100 point outing by New York.
Trends
The Knicks are 1-5 ATS in their last six
games following an ATS loss and 1-6 ATS in their last seven games against a
team with a winning record. They’ve also gone 3-0-1 to the ‘under’ in their
last four games vs. teams with a winning record.
Other trends of note--The Heat are 0-4
against teams with a losing record. The road team is 5-1 in the last six series
meetings.
Harvey’s Take: Miami has been a disappointment in the ATS department
going 8-10 overall and 5-4 at home. Still they’re the better option of the two.
The better play is the ‘under’ especially if New York continues its recent
trend of sub 100-point outings.
Go low
in South Beach and good luck!