Steve Nash and the Phoenix Suns play host to Kobe Bryant and the Los Angeles Lakers this evening. See what lines the sportsbook odds makers have on tap for us tonight, as we try to cash with a pick on this game's spread.
5* graded Free NBA pick on the Los Angeles Lakers as
they take on the Phoenix Suns set to start at 8:00 PM ET. In past
years, this would have been a marquee matchup, but these two Western conference
powers have fallen upon more difficult times and neither are leading their
division and only one is playoff bound. Still, the matchups will provide for a
very entertaining game with two former league MVP’s in Kobe Bryant and Steve
Nash going head-to-head again.
The is the second game in a home-and-home series where the Lakers
soundly defeated the Suns 111-99 and covered the right point spread at Staples
Arena. The final score, though is not indicative how dominant the Lakers were
for 40 minutes of this game where at one point they enjoyed a 20-point lead.
The Phoenix Suns are just 12-19 and 5-8 in home games this
season. They are in fourth place in the Pacific division of the Western
Conference trailing the Los Angeles Clippers by eight games. The Lakers are
building momentum and are at 18-12 for the season and trail the Clippers by
just 1.5 games.
Team Rankings and Matchups
The Phoenix Suns were once an NBA offensive juggernaut in recent
seasons, but now are an offense that is easily defended and one that struggles
to execute in the half-court set. Under new head coach Mike Brown, the Lakers
are assembly a strong defensive minded team that currently ranks fourth in the
NBA allowing 90.7 points per game.
The Lakers rank 22nd in the NBA in scoring offense
averaging just 93.1 points per game, 30th averaging just 7.7 fast
break points per game, 16th averaging 39,4 points in the paint, 15th averaging 20.9 assists per game, and 13th
posting a 1.393 assist-to-turnover ratio. The Lakers don’t need to press on
offense given the tremendous size and length advantages they have with Bynum
and Gasol in the paint.
The best part of Phoenix’ defense is that they rank fifth in the
NBA allowing 11.1 fast break points per game. They rank 17th
allowing 40.1 points in the paint and the Lakers game plan will be to get the
ball to Bynum and Gasol in the paint often.
The Lakers recent winning ways have been well supported by strong
fundamental rebounding. They rank second in the NBA averaging 54.3 boards per
game. Broken down, they rank first in the NBA getting 33.8 defensive boards per
game and 13th getting 11.8 offensive boards per game. This reflects
the defense first scheme that is taking shape on the Lakers team. This also
makes it very difficult for a struggling Suns offense knowing that they will
have very few second chance scoring opportunities.
My proprietary sports betting database and simulator show a
high probability that the Lakers will win this game by four or more points.
Phoenix is just not in a good spot to enact revenge in this second of a
home-and-home series. Suns are just 7-25 ATS when playing with double revenge having two
straight losses to the current opponent over the last two seasons; 2-13 ATS
revenging a road loss to opponent of 10 points or more over the last two
Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a
record of 52-18 for 74% winning NBA picks 2006. Play on
road favorites after going over the total by 18 or more points total in their
last three games and winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season.
Handicapper Steven Suarez has posted his pick in favor of the over in his 'NBA Picks of the Day' article. While he makes a good case, I am going to take the Lakers and lay the points.
NBA Pick: Lakers -2.5