Mavericks vs. Jazz: NBA Picks

NBA odds makers have opened with the Utah Jazz listed as two point favorites and a total of 184. Early sports betting action has seen each of these numbers rise half of a point at most sportsbooks.

The Mavericks (8-7 SU, 10-5 ATS) suffered a heartbreaking road loss to the Clippers last night falling 91-89. A Chauncey Billups 3-pointer with one-second remaining erased an 89-88 deficit to give Los Angeles the win. Jason Terry had hit a pair of shots from beyond the arc in the final 37 seconds only to have Billups steal the game with his late dagger.

The Jazz (9-4 SU, 8-5 ATS) are now 6-2 vs. the number at home following Monday’s 109-78 rout of the Clippers. It was Utah’s 16^th straight victory over LA in Salt Lake City, dropping the Clips’ to 1-38 in the last 39 games played in SLC. Utah has won three straight and eight of its last ten SU.

Paul Milsap played 30 minutes and scored a game-high 20 points while C.J. Miles came off to bench to add 19. Al Jefferson added a double-double with 10 points and 13 rebounds. The vastly improved Jazz defense held LA to 36.5 percent shooting (31 of 85) and just 20 percent (4 of 20) from beyond the arc. Two of Utah’s ‘Super Subs” Josh Howard and Derrick Favors missed out on the dunk fest against the Clippers and are listed as questionable for tonight’s game.

Utah now has the best home record (7-1) in the NBA’s tough Northwest Division and along with Denver and is two games behind Kevin Durant and the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Jazz are also tied for second overall in the Western Conference.

Mavs on the rebound

Dallas opened defense of its NBA title by losing its first three games but have since righted the ship. The Mavericks have won eight of their last 10 games SU and are 6-4 ATS over the same stretch. They’ve also been a real money maker for ‘under’ players who have seen the Mavs go low in 10 of their first 14 outings. Credit the Dallas defense which has been particularly good as of late.

In Monday’s loss to the Lakers, they held LA to seven points in the third quarter, the lowest point total for a quarter in team history. On Saturday against Sacramento, the Mavs held the Kings to 23 points in the first half and 60 for the game. Both were Dallas franchise records.

Offensively, the Mavericks big guns have been slow to get going. Dirk Nowitzki leads with a team high 17.9 points per game but that’s down substantially from his career average of 25.9 ppg. Jason Terry is the only other player scoring in double figures (14.4 ppg) which might explain Dallas’ disappointing 92.1 ppg average.

Lamar Odom has been a major disappointment since his acquisition from the Lakers. The Mavericks sixth man has struggled, averaging 7.0 points (on 31.4 percent shooting) and 4.9 rebounds through the Mavericks' first 13 games.

Trends

The Mavericks are 2-8-1 in the last 11 series meetings in Utah and the home team is 23-7-1 in the past 31 games. The Jazz are 7-1 ATS overall in their last eight appearances.

The ‘under’ is 10-1 Dallas’ last 11 games dating back to last season while the ‘under’ has been the play (6-2) in Utah’s last eight games.

The Mavericks swept last year’s season series going 4-0 both SU and ATS.

Harvey’s Take: One of the early trends we’ve been able to glean from the first few weeks of the season is the strong home court advantage. With a slight number to cover, I will add Utah to my NBA picks, expecting the Jazz to get it done again tonight against what has to be a weary Dallas team.

Good luck!