Dallas is a solid team on the court, but kind only to faders at the window. Grab the bucket and the Grizzlies at home in Memphis on Wednesday vs. the Mavericks.
The Mavericks pay a visit to the Grizzlies at FedEx Forum on Wednesday night with tip-off set for 8:05 p.m. (ET). This team and location have not been kind to the Mavs of late with the Grizzlies covering four straight in the series including winning and covering the last three at the Forum.
Dallas has struggled against the number going 31-42 ATS in all games this season, including 20-33 ATS as a favorite. The Mavericks are 0-9 ATS in road games after two straight games where they made nine or more three-point shots.
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Mavs leader Dirk Nowitzki has been unsuccessful in recreating the 27 points per game he averaged against the Grizzlies last season, putting up a mere 18 points per game in the first two meetings this season. We expect the Grizzlies to keep him in check and cash another ticket on Wednesday night.
When these two squads met back in December, Memphis took a 98-82 win on its home court as six-point underdogs. In the return match at Dallas a few weeks later, the Mavs enjoyed a 106-101 triumph, but failed to cover the 8 ½-point chalk on their home floor.
A check of our database reveals a solid system that tells us to play on home teams after their 71st game of the season, provided they are off back-to-back ATS losses and have a win percentage of less than .590 versus an opponent off back-to-back ATS wins. These teams are 69-46-2 ATS.
With solid technical support and recent history on our side we will back the host here as the Grizzlies continue their recent dominance over the Mavericks tonight.
Projected Final Score: Memphis-103 Dallas-100
Free Pick: Grizzlies +2 (-110)