After spending nearly the entire season as the odds on favorite to take the title, the Miami Heat now find themselves sliding down the boards. Is this heavily backed team slowly becoming a trap for NBA bettors? Let's deide if it's time to get off of this train or not.
Even
though they tied up their series with the Pacers at 2-2 over the weekend, the
Heat are no longer the favorites to win the NBA title, as they had been for most of the season. Since their struggles with the Pacers began, and after the way the Spurs dominated the Clippers, the Heat now find themselves as the second favorite in the eyes of NBA odds makers to win it all.
As of
Monday morning, the Heat are +200 to win the NBA title, while the Spurs are
+160, after being around +600 when the playoffs began. Also, the Thunder are
almost at even odds with the Heat, as they are listed as +210 to win the Title.
The
question of whether the Heat are a trap is a different story, as the thought of Miami claiming the title isn’t far
outside the realm of possibility. However, due to the fact that they are 5-3-1
ATS in the playoffs so far, I wouldn't go as far as calling them a trap. I do think they are
over valued in a majority of their games, which makes them a hard team for us basketball bettors to
handicap. They garner a lot of action, but I took a look back at all the Heat’s
playoff games, and the public is beating the books betting on Heat playoff
games.
The
majority of the public has picked 61% correct winners in the Heat’s nine
playoff games so far this postseason. It doesn’t necessarily correlate with the
Heat’s ATS record either, because the public bet Indiana heavy in Game 2 of the
series, and the Pacers ended up getting the win after being +6 ½ underdogs. 60%
of the public’s money was on Indiana that game, which was the first one without
Chris Bosh. The sportsbooks drastically underestimated the value Bosh had to
the Heat, and it cost them.
Looking
forward into the playoffs, the books will be extra cautious with Miami’s lines,
as they will look to recoup some of that money they have lost on their games so
far. The Heat are favored by -7 in early NBA odds for Tuesday night’s Game 5 in
Miami. This is just a half point over what they were favored in Game 2, which
they lost at home.
If
indeed the Heat win this series, which it seems to me they will, their odds to
win the title will surely go back up a bit, but I don’t think there is anything
they can do short of winning two in a row against Indiana, then sweeping the
Eastern Conference Finals, in order to become the odds on favorite to win the
title in NBA future odds. I think whoever wins the Western Conference Finals,
will be favored over the Heat if they make it there.
If
Lebron James and Dwyane Wade can continue to play like they did in Game 4, the
Heat winning the title at +200 would be a nice bet to take right now. It’s
tough to combine for 70 points in every game; so waiting until after Game 5
might be the right call. Chris Bosh isn’t expected back anytime during this
series, so it is the Batman and Robin show for the duration of the Pacers
series, win or lose. However, until I hear more about the health of Chris Bosh,
I can’t advice anyone to bet the Heat to win the title right now, despite how
inviting the NBA Future Lines are. If Bosh isn’t back to 100% for the playoffs,
the Heat have an expiration date.