The Thunder showcased their explosiveness in Game 1 and will try to grab a 2-0 series lead over the Heat on Thursday. How have the NBA odds makers adjusted the lines for Game 2, and should we look the same way with our NBA picks?
Game 1's odds had OKC favored by five points, and just as we predicted, the home
team came through with the cover. The total's movement finished off at 195 and
in the end the OVER was the way to go, with the O/U ending at 199.
Even after the Thunder's win and a relatively high-scoring
game, the NBA betting lines remain essentially the exact same for Game 2.
Again the Thunder have opened as 4.5-point favorites, with a
lot of the early action pushing that number to five at some books. The early
total is at 195 once more. We can expect similar movement again as both the
spread and O/U should continue to rise leading up until tipoff.
We were expecting at least a little bump in the line, maybe
up to 5.5 or even 6.5, after what Oklahoma City was able to do in Game 1, but
oddsmakers don't seem to have been influenced in the slightest. Interesting
Durant 1 LeBron 0
Miami lost despite getting out to a double-digit lead, as
they had no answer for Kevin Durant down the stretch.
Durant was outstanding, putting up a game-high 36 points on
12-of-20 shooting and adding in eight rebounds and four assists for good
measure. Russell Westbrook came through as well, posting 27 points, 11 assists
and eight boards. The pair turned it over just four times between them.
LeBron and D-Wade? They had seven turnovers combined.
At least “The King” was a force offensively as normal. He
had 30 points, nine boards and five dimes, but again couldn't get it going when
it mattered most. For those of you who checked out the prop betting odds for Game 1 would have seen how spot on the odds makers were with LeBron's stats. The O/U for LeBron's point total at 30.5, while the number is 9.5 for rebounds and for 5.5 assists, and the UNDER hit by just a haf a point with each of these.
Dywane Wade was way worse however, scoring only 19 points on 7-of-19
shooting and forcing a lot of bad shots.
The key in Game 1 though was Oklahoma City's defensive
adjustments. They held the Heat to just 40 second-half points and clamped down
on Miami's two superstars, especially in the fourth quarter. In particular,
Thabo Sefolosha was all over the place.
From there Durant took the game into his hands and Westbrook
also showed how fearless he was with a number of key baskets in last 12
Overall, it was quite the show put on by Oklahoma City.
Something must change
Though we're a little wary that the line hasn't budged at
all, we are going right back to the Thunder in Game 2 after a terrific showing
on Tuesday night.
The Thunder beat the Heat at their own game, outscoring
LeBron and company 24-4 in fast-break points. They're younger and faster all
over the court, and it showed in Game 1. Westbrook was blowing past people out
on the perimeter and was having no troubles getting into the lane. So too was
Durant. Even Derek Fisher looked 10 years younger out there!
Scott Brooks' boys also won this game (quite handily in the
end) despite Miami making 8-of-19 from beyond the arc. Shane Battier hit four
threes and finished with 17 points. Is that ever going to happen again? Highly
The Thunder won by eleven and that was with James Harden
scoring only five points in 22 minutes off the bench. It was the first time he's
failed to reach double figures all postseason long.
Harden should bounce back in Game 2, but even if he doesn't
Oklahoma City is in good hands with the other two parts of their big three.
Plus, Nick Collison played 21 terrific minutes, getting himself into great
positions all game long. He had eight points on 4-of-5 shooting and grabbed 10
rebounds, five of which were on the offensive glass.
Hold your ground
Truth is, OKC simply overwhelmed Miami as the game wore on.
Erik Spoelstra's defense, which ranked in the top five during the regular
season, was picked apart yet again and I'm not too sure if things will get any
This may seem like too easy of a play, but until the Heat,
especially Wade, show me something different, the Thunder are going to continue
being my choice in these NBA Finals picks.
Best of luck!
FREE Pick: Oklahoma City Thunder -4.5
Heat are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall
Heat are 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as road underdogs
Thunder are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall
Thunder are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as favorites
OVER is 6-1 in Miami's last 7 games overall
OVER is 4-0 in Oklahoma City's last 4 games overall
Thunder are 5-2 ATS in the
last 7 head-to-head meetings