The last nine times the Trail Blazers and Suns have met have seen the home team go 6-2-1 against the spread. Play Portland on its home court in Game 3.
The Phoenix Suns and Portland Trail Blazers series moves to the Rose Garden on Thursday evening for Game 3 of their best-of-seven with it all tied up at a game apiece. This after the Suns bounced back from a Game 1 home loss and defeated the Blazers handily, 119-90, on Tuesday night in Game 2.
The news is not good for the Suns though because teams that failed to win Game 1 of a best-of-seven series have only advanced 21 percent of the time. The Suns are only 1-7 SU in the playoffs since 2007 and face a rather tough road here because they have not had much success at the Rose Garden.
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Phoenix has lost three of the five meetings this season, including the only game played here. In that game the Blazers came back from a 15-point deficit, outscoring the Suns 35-21 in the fourth quarter and held on for the 105-102 win.
In this series the home team is 6-2-1 ATS the last nine meetings while the favorite is 19-7-2 ATS the last 28.
A check of our database reveals two league-wide systems that are active for tonight’s contest and support the host here. The first system tells us to play against a playoff road team from Game 2 on of a series when facing an opponent seeking revenge from a road SU loss of 21 or more points. These playoff road teams are a miserable 0-9 ATS since 2008 failing to cover by more than 14 points per game.
Our second system says to play on a playoff team (not an underdog of seven or more points) off a playoff loss of 22 or more points in its last game and not a SU win of six or more points in its playoff game prior to that loss. These play on teams are 13-0 ATS since 2003 and averages covering the spread by more than 11 points per game.
We expect the Blazers to control the pace and tempo in tonight’s contest and this has proven to be the deciding factor in this series so far. Lay the short price as the Blazers grab an all important Game 3 victory on Thursday night at the Rose Garden.
Prokected Final Score: Portland-98 Phoenix-90
Free Pick: Trail Blazers -1 (-110)