The Portland Trailblazers host the Memphis Grizzlies tonight, and if we have learned anything from this "shortened season" format, it is that teams are playing tired.
See what odds the sportsbook odds makers are offering us, and find out which NBA picks we expect to cash.
5* graded NBA Pick on Portland as they take on Memphis in NBA action
set to start at 10:00 PM ET. I also like a 5* amount playing ‘UNDER’ the posted
total. Memphis finds themselves in a three-team log jam on top of the Southwest
division of the Western Conference. The Grizzlies sport a 10-6 record while
both San Antonio and Dallas trail just by percentage points with identical 11-7
records. Despite a 10-7 record, Portland finds themselves in fourth place of
the Northwest division of the Western Conference.
In the Western Conference, the playoff standings are led by
Oklahoma City with a 14-3 record. Memphis holds down the fourth spot by virtue
of leading the division while Portland is in ninth position, one spot out of
the playoffs at this points of the regular season. Only 4 1/2 games separate
the Oklahoma City Thunder to the 10th place Los Angeles Lakers.
Last Night’s Results
Both teams played last night with Portland cruising to a 101-89
home win over the Sacramento Kings and covered the 10 ½ point NBA betting spread by 1 ½
points. They held an 18 point lead entering the fourth quarter, but managed to
hold off a big Kings run.
Memphis had a far different journey to their victory last night
at Golden State. Installed as 2 ½ point dogs, it looked very certain Golden
State would get the win and cover the skinny spread entering the fourth quarter
with a 16 point lead. However, Memphis had other plans and scored 37 points in
the fourth stanza to win the game 91-90. They spent a ton of energy getting
that win and are now playing their fourth game in the last five days.
Simulator Projections
My proprietary sports betting database and simulator show a
high probability that Portland will win this game by seven or more points. The
‘tight’ schedule has added a more meaningful weighting to fatigue factors in
the NBA in this season.
Just last night we saw the Celtics win by 31 points and
scored just 87 points over the Orlando Magic. The Magic scored a franchise low
and had back-to-back 10 point third and fourth periods last night. I am
certainly not extrapolating this performance to the Grizzlies tonight, but I
strongly believe that Memphis will be the more tired team in this matchup.
Supporting System for the
5* ‘UNDER’ Play
Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a
record of 59-27 for 69% winners since 1996. Play
‘under’ with any team that is expected to be an extremely tired team playing
nine or more games in 14 days facing a similar opponent playing their third
road game in five days. Of the 86 plays made based on the criteria of this
system 47 of them or 55%, have gone ‘under’ the posted total by seven or more
points.
Injury
Update
The Memphis Grizzlies forward/center
Zach Randolph is out indefinitely due to a sever knee injury. He has been out
of action since January 4. For Portland, Gerald Wallace was upgraded to
probable for last night’s game against Golden State. However, he did not play,
but I do feel he will play tonight and contribute significantly in the game.
Take Portland for a 5* play and the ‘under’
for a 5* play.