NBA Picks: Eastern conference ATS summary

Jeremy Lin has dominated the NBA headlines since he took over at point guard for the New York Knicks, and the Knicks’ NBA lines, so far, have not yet caught up. The Knicks have covered all five of the games Lin started through February 12^th, and they covered those games by comfortable margins as well. However, an overreaction to the absence of both Carmelo Anthony and Amare Stoudemire may have been at least partially responsible for recent line value with the Knicks, and it’s not at all clear that blindly betting into LinMania will still be profitable going forward.

The Sixers and the Bulls are still the Top two ATS teams in the Eastern Conference overall on the year, and while the word is completely out on them both by now, they may still have value as a play-on in spots. The Sixers appear to be a team that particularly does not “play down” to their competition when they face inferior opponents, and as such they have been a great bet this year as a big favorite. With Chicago, all of the value on Bulls lines this year has come on the road, where their depth and talent allows them to keep pace, while at home their inflated spreads have resulted in them being just 5-5 ATS.

The worst bets in the East so far this year have been Washington and Charlotte, and while the Wizards have been reasonably competitive recently, the Bobcats have looked utterly futile on the court most of the time. Over their last 10 games as of February 13^th, the Bobcats did manage 2 covers, but most of their 8 ATS losses were not even close, with 5 of them coming by more than 15 points. The market may be hesitant to price Charlotte as just as poor of a team as they really are, so value fading the Bobcats, even as (or maybe especially as) a big underdog may remain going forward.

With totals, in the early parts of this NBA picks season blindly betting unders was an extremely profitable thing to do. But that trend has come to a grinding halt now that a few months of play have gone by, and there are now some teams that have been solid bets on the over, and may continue to be so going forward. The Milwaukee Bucks have gone over in 11 out of their last 12 games as of Februray 13^th, and they don’t have the reputation of being a particularly high scoring team. That may be a factor serving to keep their posted totals modest, while their final scores are consistently in the 200s.