Let's see how we can exploit a small schedule tonight with our NBA picks.

A few fantastic NBA matchups are on tap tonight, including Atlanta-Boston, Orlando-Chicago and Denver-Dallas. Here are the NBA picks I'm taking to my sportsbook today.

Denver (25-20 SU, 25-20 ATS) vs. Dallas (26-20 SU, 23-23 ATS)

Tipoff at 10:30 PM EST

Denver Nuggets

The Dallas Mavericks, folks, have been an absolute disaster on the road as of late. They've lost seven straight away from home and are 1-6 ATS in those matchups to make matters worse. Included in that losing streak were double-digit defeats to Golden State and Sacramento and another loss to lowly New Orleans. 

Dallas is already without Delonte West for the long haul but will also be missing two more key guys tonight. Shawn Marion and Brendan Haywood both have bum knees and are expected to miss the game. That's two of the Mavericks' best defenders and glue guys right there. 

I think people are seeing Dallas' three-game winning run and over-reacting a little bit. The win over San Antonio was solid, but the other two victories were at home against Charlotte and Washington. Nothing to write home about. 

The Nuggets meanwhile are fully healthy again, with Danilo Gallinari finding his scoring touch again and Timofey Mozgov recently returning to the fold. Kenneth Faried has been a revelation for George Karl's team and is coming off a 18 point/16 rebound showing against Boston. What's more, newcomer JaVale McGee is expected to make his Denver debut and Wilson Chandler, who just signed a new contract, will also be in the mix against the Mavs. 

Just 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall, Dallas may be winning games but they're not cashing for NBA bettors. I'm thinking that'll be the case again here and expecting the deeper Nuggets to pull away for the victory.

PICK: Denver Nuggets -3.5


Golden State (18-24 SU, 22-20 ATS) vs. Minnesota (22-24 SU, 24-22 ATS)

Tipoff at 10:30 PM EST

The next of my sports picks switches gears a little bit and focuses on a total play involving two teams that have seen their identities change recently. Minnesota was shook by the season-ending injury to Ricky Rubio, who was in the midst of a terrific rookie NBA season. Luke Ridnour has shifted over to the point and is doing a respectable job leading the offense, but no one sees the floor like Rubio. 

The Warriors were involved in some interesting trade deadline deals which saw them lose Monta Ellis, Ekpe Udoh and Kwame Brown and gain oft-injured Andrew Bogut. They also traded for Richard Jefferson.

I like the OVER tonight because both squads have been horrendous defensively. The Timberwolves are allowing 108.4 PPG while the Warriors are giving up 101.2 PPG over the last five games. Both teams are averaging over the century mark offensively in that span too.

This season, Minnesota ranks in the top ten in 3-point and free throw attempts per game and is also in the top five in PACE, tied for #4 alongside Oklahoma City. The Warriors are also high on the list in PACE at #9 and can be found at #7 in offensive efficiency, which measures the number of points a team scores per 100 possessions.

The OVER is 5-2 in Minnesota's last seven overall and 4-1 in their last five road games, while cashing in five straight Golden State home matchups. I'm looking for another high-scoring battle at Oracle Arena.

PICK: OVER 205