It's a battle between two Western Conference contenders in the Denver Nuggets and the L.A. Clippers. Find out why we have decided to shy away from the spread, as we feel that this game's total holds the best NBA betting value.
Both teams have some significant trends in their favor. The
Nuggets are 12-5 ATS on the road this season but come up against a Clippers
team that's 10-5 ATS at home.
In the two prior meetings of the season, the road team in
each took home both the SU and ATS win. Close to three weeks ago the Nuggets
went into Staples Center and won 112-91 as they shot 53.4 percent from the
field and a staggering 57.1 percent (12-of-21) from three.
Injuries have had a big effect on both franchises this
season. Denver is still really banged up, with Danilo Gallinari out
indefinitely and Nene, Ty Lawson and Rudy Fernandez also dealing with various
bumps and bruises.
Nene is listed as doubtful at the moment, while Lawson and
Fernandez are both questionable to play tonight.
Injury Bug
We all know what happened to L.A.'s Chauncey Billups. He's
lost for the season because of an Achilles' injury and the Clippers have been
forced to adapt quickly.
Vinny Del Negro's men have dropped two straight ahead of
this game. They lost in Golden State by seven points despite 20+ points from
Chris Paul, Blake Griffin and Mo Williams. Mistakes were the downfall for the
Clippers as they turned it over 18 times.
Denver is coming off an overtime victory over Minnesota,
which broke the team's three-game losing streak . Despite an awful 3-8 SU
record over their last 11, the Nuggets have been pretty decent (4-2 ATS) versus
the number over the last two weeks.
The NBA odds of 7.5 points is putting me off though. I think L.A.
wins this game, but even with their injuries Denver hasn't backed down from
anyone. Their record may not show it, but the Nuggets did only lose to Memphis
and Oklahoma City by a combined seven points on the road last week.
In place of a NBA pick on the spread, I'm fancying
the UNDER for tonight's matchup in Los Angeles.
I realize the Nuggets are tied with the Heat as the league's
most productive offense (103.8 PPG) and
that they are second from bottom in points allowed per game at 100.8 PPG. But I
suspect the Clippers will take exception to their embarrassing February 2 loss
to Denver and in turn will be aiming to completely shut down their shorthanded
opponents.
Where Art Though, Defense?
With four of Denver's best offensive talents in danger of
missing the game tonight, I think they may struggle to match that offensive
output we've gotten used to seeing.
Plus, though the Clippers certainly miss Billups out there,
they have in fact looked better defensively with Randy Foye in the starting
lineup. As a team they're allowing only 91.6 PPG over their last five games.
Taking all of this into account, I regard the UNDER as
having the most sports betting value for this matchup.
PICK: UNDER 205.5
Check out my NBA picks of the day!
TREND BREAKDOWN
Nuggets are 23-7 ATS in their last 30 road games dating back
to last season
Clippers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games
Clippers are 6-1 ATS in the last 7 head-to-head meetings
Road team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 head-to-head meetings
UNDER is 20-8 in the last 28 head-to-head meetings