This is my sixth week of the NBA Lock report and tonight’s pick is for the Philadelphia 76ers at the Orlando Magic. The NBA odds makers have the Magic well out in front as 9 point favorites. 

Season record (13-8 ATS for 61.9% ATS winners). Last night Charlotte beat the Bulls 83-82 and I picked the Bobcats. Let’s keep the winning going.

5 Star Basketball pick on the Orlando Magic as they host the Philadelphia 76ers in NBA action set to start at 7:05 PM ET. 

My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that Orlando will win this game by 10 or more points. The simulations show that the Philadelphia 76ers will not hit better than 37% from 3-point territory.

Philadelphia ranks 18th in 3-point shooting hitting 35%, so it stands to reason that Philadelphia will not exceed their season average. Orlando Magic are 28-11 ATS when their opponents make 32% to 38% of their three pointers in a game over the last two seasons.

Magic returning home

Orlando is coming off a tough loss to Boston 109-106 and pushed the three point spread. The loss though was quite an impressive performance given that it was the fifth straight road game and now they come home to face a vastly suspect 76ers team. The Magic are 19-7 ATS after a road game where both teams score 100 or more points over the last three seasons.

Orlando will look to push the tempo in this game knowing they are 17-4 SU when scoring over 100 points and that the 76ers are just 9-8 when the score over 100 points. Moreover, Orlando has averaged a score of 105.8 to 91.8 when favored by 10 or more points.

The Magic have gotten out to fast starts against these inferior opponents as well scoring 27 points and allowing 20.8 points in the first quarter; scoring 27.8 points and allowing 23 points in the second quarter. The Magic are a solid 5-2 ATS as 10+ point favorites on the season.

Philadelphia defense can be suspect

In games where the 76ers have been 10 or more point dogs their defense has not done well allowing 105.7 points per game. Moreover, they get out to slow starts allowing an average of 31 points in the first quarter.

The Magic have an excellent coach and it is reflected in his abilities to motivate his troops after a tough road loss. Van Gundy is 42-19 ATS off a road loss; 31-12 ATS after a road game where both teams score 100 or more points as the coach of Orlando.

Free NBA Pick: Take Orlando on the spread