10* graded play OVER the posted total when Philadelphia travels to Boston for Game 7 of their Eastern Conference semifinal matchup. Find out why I have decided to lay a little bit more on this pick than usual.
The simulator shows a high
probability that 175 or more points will be scored in this game. The 76ers are
projected to hit between 32 and 38% of their three point shot attempts. In past
games they are a solid 16-6 OVER making 9.4 units
per one unit wagered in road games when they make 32% to 38% of their three
point attempts in a game over the last two seasons.
The 76ers are not a three point
shooting team, but their offense is designed to get wide open looks from beyond
the arc when available. The 76ers offense is most effective when they attack
the rim and get as many points in the paint as possible. When they push the
ball into the paint area, it forces the defense to collapse and many times
leaves wide open perimeter shooters to attempt high percentage shots.
In Game 6, the Philadelphia
defense did a perfect job defending Garnett. Although he scored 20 points and
made nine field goals, NONE came from the paint area. In fact, he did not even
attempt a shot from the low post paint area in the game. The 76ers big men
combination of Spencer Hawes, Elton Brand, and Lavoy Allen pushed Garnett out
of the low post and forced him to settle for the perimeter shots. Many times he
was immediately double teamed and forced to pass the ball to a non-shooter and
because he was a perimeter shooter only, he had no chance to get any offensive
Now, the problem was that Ray
Allen was running wild off of picks along the perimeter and did not make shots.
He has a very weak and sore ankle and certainly affected his scoring abilities
in Game 6. I believe he will score far more points from the perimeter if the
76ers choose the same defensive scheme. The Celtics will rotate Allen into
passing lanes for Garnett when he is double teamed.
The 76ers fast break will be in
high gear. Boston is the worst rebounding team in the NBA and the 76ers have a
significant advantage over them in this category. Look for the 76ers to push
the tempo early looking for fast break scoring opportunities in transition.
Much like a big powerful offensive line wears down a defensive front over the
course of a football game, the 76ers will look to run the Celtics into the wall
of fatigue. Even if the Celtics get back on defense after a missed shot, it
will require a large amount of physical exertion and will limit their second
chance scoring opportunities.
Supporting System and Game
Supporting my NBA picks is a
system that has produced a record of 132-75 for 64% winners since 1996. Play OVER with all teams where the total is between 170
and 179.5 points off a road loss and is a well rested team playing four or less
games in 10 days.
Philadelphia is a perfect 8-0 OVER making
8.0 units per one unit wagered in road games when playing against a team
posting a win percentage between 51% and 60% and with the game taking place in
the second half of the season encompassing games played over the last two
SBR Capper Jordan Sharp has also posted two picks backing the Celtics at -5.5, as well as a play on the OVER. Be sure to check out his article as well, as it only helps to validate my play in this game.
Take the OVER for a 10* graded