5* graded play on the Sparks as they take on the Fever in WNBA action. The Fever have won two straight and are in second place in the East. The Sparks are riding a four game winning streak and are in second place in the Western Conference.
The Sparks have been stellar at home with a 9-1 record and just average on the road with a 5-5 record. Still, the matchups favor the Sparks to cover this number and possibly win the game.
Whenever I have a dog that I
believe can with the game, breaking up the wager amount into two parts
consisting of the line and money line are attractive options. Currently, many
shops are offering Los Angeles at +175 on the money line. So, consider using a
3.5 unit amount taking Los Angeles and the 4 ½ points and adding a 1.5 unit
wager on the money line. I have found that these combination bets can add
significant amounts to the bottom line profits over the course of the season.
The simulator shows a high
probability that Los Angeles will lose this game by fewer than four points and
has an excellent shot at winning the game as outlined above. There is a high
probability - exceeding 90% - that the Sparks will score more than 78 points in
this game. In past games, the Sparks are 143-65 ATS when they have scored 78 or
more points in games played since 1997.
The Sparks are an uptempo style
of WNBA team, and Indiana has not fared well against this type of opponent. The
Fever are just 56-96 ATS in up-tempo games where they attempt 64 or
more shots since 1997. Moreover, the Fever is just 19-37 ATS when they allow 78
to 82 points in a game since 1997; 8-17
ATS (-10.7 Units) when they allow 78 or more points in a game over the last 2
Supporting this graded play is a
system that has produced a record of 23-4 for 85.2% winners since 2006. Play on home
favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points off a win against a division rival and is a good
team winning between 60% to 75% of their games and now playing a team with a
winning record after 15 or more games have been played in the regular season.
Here is a second system that has
produced a 54-24 ATS mark for 69.2% winners since 1997. Play against any team after two or more consecutive OVER results and
is a struggling defensive team allowing between 72 and 76 points per game and
is now facing a very weak defensive team allowing 76 or more points per game
after 15 or more regular season games have been completed.
The Sparks are a strong
rebounding team and this will work to their advantage tonight. When a dog is
looking to win a basketball game at any level, they must rebound the ball well,
especially on the defensive end, and minimize second and third chance scoring
opportunities. Indiana is just 53-78 ATS when
playing against a team with a winning record after 15+ games since 1997.
My Pick: Take the Los Angeles Sparks