The Suns are a beaten team and they know it. The Spurs would like to finish this one off and grab some extra rest. Put it all together and it spells a San Antonio outright win today.
After cashing an easy ticket with the Spurs on Friday night this one should not be coming as any surprise at all. The only surprise is that the market is allowing us to take a full +4, so let’s get to it while it is still there.
It took Gregg Popovich and the Spurs some time to figure out how to deal with the Phoenix defense with Shaq on the floor – they suffered two ugly regular-season losses, and then fell behind big at home in Game 1 of this series. But in the second half of that game it all started to make sense. There is absolutely nothing that the currently configured Suns can do about their pick-and-roll plays. Without Shawn Marion, who could try to lock up either Tony Parker or Manu Ginobli in the past, there is no one that can stop the dribbler man-to-man, and Shaq does not have the legs to stop penetration once the pick takes place. So San Antonio keeps doing it over, and over, and over again, and the series is now well in hand.
So what changes Sunday? Nothing. There was no mistaking the look in the eyes of the Phoenix players on Friday night, nor their post-game comments. They are a beaten team, and they know it, and at that mental state they would be the least likely to be able to make adjustments. The real key, of course, is that there are no adjustments to make anyway; that is all that Mike D’Antoni has to work with.
Steve Nash was a below average defensive player at the peak of his career, and now is among the worst defenders at his position in the league; Grant Hill tries hard but is not 100 percent; and Amare Stoudemire brings no defensive savvy to the table at all. For a team that genuinely believed that a championship was attainable this season there is nothing at all motivating about merely saving some face in a series that they can not win.
And then there are the Spurs. A team loaded with playoff experience knows full well what a win here means. By becoming the first Western Conference team to clinch they can grab some extra time off before they take the floor again. As tough as the remaining opponents are going to be, that absolutely matters. We expect them to bring the right focus to take care of business here, and while the points being offered are a nice bonus, we fully expect them to win this outright.
Free Pick: Spurs +4 (-110)