The Timberwolves have been a pesky club at home this season, and they are playing with revenge after losing to the Lakers here earlier. Coach McHale has had an uncanny know in revenge spots, so take the points.

My simulator shows an 83 percent probability that the Minnesota Timberwolves will cover a line of +10 vs. the Los Angeles Lakers tonight.

Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 26-7 ATS for 79 percent since 1996. Play on dogs of 10 or more points after allowing 100 points or more two straight games facing an opponent after a combined score of 215 points or more two straight games.

Here is a second system that has gone 46-17 ATS for 73 percent winners since 2003: Play against favorites after a win by six points or less facing an opponent after scoring 100 points or more four straight games.

The Lakers are just 6-14 ATS when the total is greater than or equal to 210 this season, while Minnesota Head Coach Kevin McHale is a strong 16-4 ATS revenging a home loss in all games he has coached since 1996.

Take Minnesota.

Free Pick: Timberwolves +10 (-110)