All three teams that played Thursday down 0-2 in their first round series came away victors with Houston topping Utah, Toronto taking Orlando and Washington picking up the win over LeBron James and Cleveland. Does the same fate await the Mavericks, Suns, Nuggets and Hawks over the weekend? Or will the Hornets, Spurs, Lakers and Celtics continue on towards a sweep in their matches?
Nothing is going to come easy in the NBA playoffs (no, not even for the Boston Celtics). All three of Thursday’s first-round matchups saw the same result: the team that was up two games to none is now up two games to one.
Only two of these results were expected. The Toronto Raptors (-4) and the Washington Wizards (-5½) came back from their 0-2 deficits and will try to “hold serve” in Game 4. But using the tennis term to suggest the home team should naturally win is a bit of a stretch, as the Utah Jazz (-9) showed us in their shocking 94-92 loss to Houston.
Will this comeback trend continue elsewhere in the opening round? The rule of thumb says the losing team is more likely to make more efficient adjustments. In this light, a seven-game series becomes a heavyweight battle with two fighters trading punches. Or, to push the “basketball as art” metaphor, like an orchestral piece. This must be why basketball players are always talking about “tempo” and “momentum” and “rhythm.”
Let’s test that rule of thumb in Saturday’s two Game 3 matchups where the home team is down 0-2.
L.A. Lakers at Denver
Game 3: Saturday, Apr 26, 5:30 pm (ET) TNT
Andrew Bynum’s chances of playing in the postseason may look remote, but the Lakers are doing very well without their rising star. That’s the power of Pau Gasol: two double-doubles in two games against the Nuggets, including 36 points in the opener. The Lakers covered both games as 8½-point faves.
Gasol played more of a supporting role in Game 2 as the Nuggets went big, replacing Anthony Carter with Linas Kleiza. Bryant made Denver pay with a 49-point effort, extending the Lakers to 5-0 straight up and against the spread versus the Nuggets this year. The betting odds have Denver favored by one point on Saturday, so overtime is definitely on the radar screen – the total is 230 points, same as Game 2. The Over should be a relative bargain because of the higher likelihood of an extra frame.
Boston at Atlanta
Game 3: Saturday, Apr 26, 8:00 pm (ET) ESPN
The Hawks are 8-point puppies at home. If all those motivational “intangibles” about home-court advantage carry any weight, Atlanta will be treating Saturday’s game at Philips Arena like Game 7 of the NBA Finals. The Hawks will have to, because they are winless against Boston in five tries this season, going 1-4 ATS despite getting 15 points in each of the first two playoff games.
The under got paid in each of those five games, driven primarily by Boston’s top-ranked defense. The Celtics have the newly crowned Defensive POY Kevin Garnett holding court inside, balanced by the hard work of point guard Rajon Rondo. Rondo won’t be an “underrated” player much longer the way he’s shutting down Mike Bibby’s offense: 17 points and two assists in two games. The total is this series has dipped from 190½ to 189 and down to 187 points for Game 3.
New Orleans at Dallas
Game 4: Sunday, Apr 27, 9:30 pm (ET) TNT
Friday’s Game 3 in the Hornets-Mavericks series isn’t technically a “must-win,” but it may as well be. Very few teams in pro sports have come back from down 0-3; if you dig sports psychology, it’s easy to draw the conclusion that Dallas is one of the least likely teams to man up, given their playoff collapses of seasons past.
Which is why they traded for Jason Kidd. Although New Orleans point guard and MVP candidate Chris Paul ran circles around Kidd in the first two games, the Mavs are 5-point home favorites on Friday. What more does Paul (28.39 PER) have to do to besides dropping 30 points and 10 assists to get the kind of respect Kidd (16.69 PER) does? Sweeping the Mavs on Sunday would be a start.