Opening weekend of the NBA Playoffs found the dogs barking loudly. The only odds favorite to cover was Dallas, while the Grizzlies, Hornets and Hawks won
straight up as big dogs and the underdog Knicks and Pacers probably should have
won.
This
is not uncommon, either. The NBA playoffs mean both teams are likely to show up
and play hard for the entire game, which is not the case during the regular
season.
Even
good teams can pack it in during the long season, as we saw down the stretch
with the Celtics and during the second of back-to-backs all season long.
Boston, beset by injuries all year, was awful when playing the second game in
two nights. The Lakers, Celtics and Spurs took much of the last two weeks off,
as well, resting key players.
During
the playoffs, however, all teams want to give it their all the entire game,
with so much at stake. This often means exceptional defense, which will help an
underdog stay close in a lower scoring game than oddsmakers might expect and can
give NBA handicappers the edge.
The
Knicks, one of the worst defensive teams in the league this season, held the
Celtics to .438% shooting in Game 1 and won the battle of blocked shots by a
9-5 count. That game sailed under the total by 26 points with Boston’s defense
holding the uptempo Knicks to 85 points and .423% shooting. There’s little
doubt who controlled the pace.
Indiana
held the Bulls to .439% shooting and nearly pulled off the upset, except for a
16-1 Chicago run to end the game, fueled by big ‘D’. Chicago held a 49-34
rebounding advantage. Rallying in the fourth quarter is nothing new for
Chicago. The Bulls had 11 wins this season in games in which they were trailing
at the end of the third quarter.
You
know the old sports adage, “Defense wins championships.” It’s still very much
alive and well in all sports. That’s what fueled Butler’s run to its second
straight NCAA title game and UConn to another championship. In basketball,
Michael Jordan may have been best known for his offense, but it was his and the
team’s defense from 1996-98 that netted the Chicago Bulls three straight
titles. And the same has been true for the five-time champion Lakers this
decade: Phil Jackson teaching defense to the Lakers was the final piece of the
L.A. championship puzzle.
Let’s look at those
Bulls teams under Michael Jordan. When Jordan won his last championship in
1998, the Bulls were a tremendous defensive team and notice that Chicago went
13-6-1 in games under the total during the 1998 playoffs. When Larry Brown
coached the Philadelphia 76ers to the NBA finals, he taught them how to play
great defense and the 76ers went 14-9 under the total in the playoffs. He then
took that defensive intensity to Detroit where he won an NBA title in 2004 with
a Pistons’ team that was one of the most smothering defensive squads in NBA
history. Just ask the Lakers, who the Pistons upset in five games despite being
7-to-1 underdogs.
One thing that
happens is that strong defensive teams play as hard as they can defensively
during the regular season a lot of the time, but not all of the time.
Sometimes games are blowouts and teams will coast on defense or have fun trying
to score in the fourth quarter, rather than work hard playing defense (which
isn’t noticed as much by the fans as is a flashy offensive play). This is human
nature, as it’s an 82-game regular season, so you can’t play all out on defense
for six months and expect to be full of energy come playoff time.
But once the playoffs
role around it’s a different story, as there are fewer one-sided games and
opportunities to coast. And since the postseason is so short and every game
means something, it’s more likely strong defensive teams will go all out on
defense throughout the entire playoffs.
Sportsbooks are aware
of this and often adjust the totals to reflect this. The under went 4-1 the
last five games of the 2010 NBA Finals between the Lakers and Celtics, with the
losing team scoring 86, 67 and 79 points the last three games. With more on the
line, the defense often intensifies.
A decade ago in the Eastern
Conference Championship between Milwaukee and Philadelphia, there was a
contrast of a run-and-gun offensive team (the Bucks) against the rugged defense
of the 76ers. The first four games went under the total, which averaged around
190. NBA odds makers dramatically altered the line by almost 10 points to 181
and the final three games went over the total. So if you have a run-and-gun
team against a strong defensive team, many times the edge is with the under
early in a series before oddsmakers adjust, as we just saw with the
Celtics/Knicks, another clash of varying styles.
A memorable defensive
clash took place a few years ago when Pat Riley’s Miami Heat club took on the
New York Knicks in a battle of two monster defensive teams. The totals were very
low for each game (an average of 170), yet in the seven-game series the unders
still prevailed by a 5-1-1 mark. Again, the playoffs are a different season
entirely and when it comes to playing defense, and there’s no better time for
teams to show off their best if they want to pull an upset or advance.