There is intense
emotion and pride during the NBA playoffs, as well as a meeting of more evenly
matched teams. Players are more apt to dive into
the stands for a loose ball during a playoff series than during January regular
season.
The playoffs offer
excellent bounce-back spots, where one team may play a very poor game and get
blown but gets redemption to put on a better performance the next game. This is
why it’s important for NBA handicappers to pay attention to playoff blowouts.
Teams coming off a blowout loss can be fired up the next game making them
profitable to back.
The Boston Celtics got it
handed to them in Game 1 of their playoff showdown with LeBron and the Miami
Heat. Dwyane Wade, who has a long history of struggling against Boston’s
defense, went off for 38 points and some guy named James Jones was unconscious
off the bench with 25 points. It was an impressive performance by Miami, a
young team that badly needed a win to hold their home court edge.
But it was only one
game. On the horizon are adjustments and better performances by the team that
lost. The Atlanta Hawks went to Orlando for Game 5 last week and got blown out
of the water, a 101-76 loss. NBA odds makers, and the general public, were so
impressed by that performance by the higher rated seed that they made Orlando a
road favorite in Game 6. But a very different Atlanta team showed up, one that
had outplayed the Magic for most of the series. They not only covered as a home
dog but won the game (and the series), 84-81. That was nearly a carbon copy of
all the other games Atlanta won in the series, by scores of 103-93, 88-84 and
88-85. That’s impressive defense so it’s clear that the Game 5 disaster in
Orlando was an aberration.
Can the Celtics rebound?
It will be
interesting to see the Celtics play in Game 2 against Miami. They are supposed to be the composed veterans, but lost their cool,
with Captain Paul Pierce picking up two technical fouls and getting ejected in
the fourth quarter of their 99-90 Game 1 loss. I thought the Miami Heat were
the inexperienced postseason team that might break under the spotlight?
Since 1990 in the NBA
playoffs, teams coming off blowout losses of 20 or more points are 96-67
against the spread the next game. You can understand why. The postseason is so
short that each game has great importance, so a team is often focused to bounce
back after getting wiped out. Throw in the added factor of getting humiliated
on national TV by 20 or more points, and there is extra motivation, often
against the same team.
We saw this a few
years ago in the Western champion Dallas Mavericks. In Game 2 at San Antonio,
Dallas won 113-91 as an underdog, a 22-point rout of the Spurs at the
Alamodome. “We knew they were going to play aggressive,” Spurs guard Tony
Parker said after the blowout. “For whatever reason, we couldn't match it.” It
was interesting that then Mavericks coach Avery Johnson said, “We're not 20
points better than the Spurs.”
Sure enough, in Game
3 the Mavericks were a 4-point home favorite but the Spurs covered, playing
much better in a 104-103 Dallas squeaker. The same thing happened in the NBA
Finals. Dallas got blown out by Miami is Game 4, 98-74, then got the cover in
Game 5 as a +3 dog in a one-point Miami win. Dallas shot 31% in Game 4 and was
3-of-22 from long range (just a bad night at the office), but shot much better
in Game 5. It’s tough to blow out good teams back-to-back in the NBA
playoffs.
Angry NBA teams looking for playoff payback
A lot of things are
coming together to give an edge to the team that got blown out. Players can be
angry and fired up to get revenge for the humiliating, televised beating, or
the victorious team can think they’re clearly better and psychologically let up
a bit the next game.
It doesn’t have to be
against the same team, either. A few years ago after the Celtics whipped the
76ers 120-87 in their Game 5 clincher, the next game Boston had a hangover in a
96-84 loss at Detroit as a 2-point dog.
A year ago in the NBA
Finals, the Celtics got blown out in Game 6, 89-67. Many thought Game 7 would
be a dud, but a very different Boston team showed up, leading by 13 in the
second half as a +7 dog. They failed to win the game, but covered the number
with ease in a four-point LA win. In fact, the Celtics are currently 17-8-1 ATS in their last 26 playoff
games as an underdog. So don’t get carried away when one team
routs another in the playoffs. It doesn’t mean they’re going to do that again
and again, as clubs that get whipped can rise up and play like a very different
team the next game.