Think back to last
season’s NBA Finals. Celtics against the Lakers: Kevin Garnett, Paul Piece,
Rajon Rondo, Ray Allen, Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, Lamar Odom. What comes to mind
about these players?
Offense! Remember that betting lines are made in part
by what NBA lines makers think the general public is thinking.
The betting public
prefers offense in all sports, which is one reason low scoring sports like
hockey and soccer have struggled to catch on in this country. Last week the
Boston Bruins and Tampa Bay Lightening played a terrific Game 7, despite the
fact that the final score was 1-0. And that’s the thing about winner-take-all
games or series: You can expect intense defense for the entire game.
So in 2011 we have an
NBA Finals loaded with offensive star power. Yet, when these teams met in the
2006 NBA Finals, four of the six games between the Mavericks and Heat went
under the total. For this series, Miami has home court even though Dallas won
both regular season meetings. These teams were tied for first in the NBA with
the best road records (28-13), which showcases their balance, star power and
defense.
Heat / Mavs strong defense
These teams know how
to bring the heat defensively. During the regular season Miami was sixth in
points allowed (94.6) and Dallas was 10th (96). The Mavs are a veteran team behind 32-year
old Dirk Nowitzki (28.4 ppg, 7.5 rpg in the playoffs, who turns 33 in June),
33-year old Shawn Marion (11.2 ppg), 33-year old Jason Terry (17.3 ppg),
33-year old Peja Stojakovic (8.8 ppg) and 38-year old Jason Kidd (10 ppg, 7.7
apg).
The addition of
28-year 7-foot-1 Tyson Chandler this season (7.3 points, 9.3 rebounds in the
postseason) has been a huge addition to their defense. Plus, he’s had an
influence on Dirk: Dirk is a pessimist and Chandler is always upbeat, reports
are Dirk is more positive and doesn’t get down as much, so Chandler has helped
team chemistry. The Mavericks
are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games overall, while the underdog is 9-4-1 ATS
in the last 14 meetings between these squads. Dallas has won 14 consecutive
regular season games over Miami since March 2004, and 17 of 18. But that
doesn't include the 2006 NBA Finals, when the Heat won in six after losing
first two.
Defense often steps
to the forefront as the games become more meaningful in May and June. For
totals players, this can mean more spots for unders than overs. Champions are
made, more often than not, by their defensive intensity. Some might disagree,
but generally it’s easier to score in basketball than to prevent the other guy
from scoring.
Defense requires
tremendous focus, energy and intensity. You have to run with your opponent,
know when to switch, box out, use your feet, use your body, and play the mind
game by trying to figure out what the other team is doing. It’s also not a
glamorous role, with offensive players getting far more attention. The Mavs have Coach Rick
Carlisle while Miami have young Erik Spoelstra.
Both understand the importance of defense and know how to teach it. When the Heat and Mavs met in the 2006 NBA
Finals, the coaches were Avery Johnson (Dallas) and Pat Riley (Miami). The Mavericks are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven playoff games as an underdog,
8-2 ATS in their last 10 games playing on 3 or more days rest and 19-6-1 ATS in
their last 26 games as a road underdog.
Miami has
star power
Dallas has depth and
height edges all around, but Miami has defense and star power. Dallas has been
the second highest scoring team in the playoffs (99.7 ppg), while Miami is tied
for second defensive in the playoffs allowing 88.3 ppg. For the record, Dallas
is no defensive slouch, fifth in the playoffs allowing 92.5 ppg.
Miami is 8-0 SU, 6-2
ATS at home in the playoffs, and on a 16-3 SU, 13-6 run overall. They have the star power with 26-year
old 6-8 LeBron James (26 ppg, 8.9 rpg, 5.5 apg in playoffs), 29-year old Dwyane
Wade (23.7 ppg) and 27-year old 6-10 Chris Bosh (18.6 ppg, 8.9 rpg). The
bench has decent role players with James Jones (6.5 ppg), Mario Chalmers and
hard working Udonis Haslem, who was outstanding against the physical Bulls.
Remember, Haslem missed Game 1 when Chicago killed Miami on the glass, then
played in Game 2, so they are 4-0 SU/ATS in the playoffs with Haslem.
Against Chicago, Miami packed the paint after losing
Game 1, giving up 10 three-pointers but clogging the paint to prevent Derrick
Rose from having space to move. Chicago was awful from 3-point land, but Dallas
has three outstanding long range shooters.
Miami is also
on an 8-3 run over the total coming into this series.
Dallas
won both meetings in November (106-95) and in December (98-96), the latter at
Miami, as both games went over the total, but Miami is so much better than they
were then. The Heat is 6-0 ATS in their last six games as a
favorite, tough 10-22 ATS in their last 32 games playing on three or more days
rest. Meanwhile the Mavericks are 41-20-2 ATS in their last 63 road game and
9-3 over the total in their last 12 games as a road underdog.
Head to head, the
over is 8-3 in the last 11
meetings in Miami, while the Mavericks are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings. Home court has meant little when these teams
clash, which is no surprise with their overall road record this season: The
road team is 19-7-1 ATS in the last 27 meetings, while the Mavericks are 9-1-1
ATS in the last 11 meetings in Miami. Smart coaches know that defense
still wins championships, so don’t be surprised if defensive intensity picks up
despite all the offensive star power in this NBA Finals. Defense, road play and star power,
this NBA Finals between the Heat and Mavs has it all!