Many gamblers consider the NBA the toughest sport to handicap. The 82-game season is a grind, and teams fluctuate in motivation, energy, and health on a nightly basis. The smart bettor will use all information available to gain an advantage in the NBA. The following list contains information that I consider important before laying any cash on a game.
Rule #1. The most popular teams are not the best ATS teams.
Just like we alluded to our NFL betting guide, Many NBA gamblers love to wager on the public teams. For the purposes of this article, we’ll consider the
Los Angeles Lakers,
Boston Celtics, and
Miami Heat as
typical examples. None of those teams had a winning ATS record in 2010-2011. Both Los Angeles and Miami were a putrid 16-25 ATS at home. Boston barely had a winning record at 20-19-2, but that would not pull a profit after juice.
The books know that
gamblers love to wager on these teams, so it is very difficult to find value with any of them, especially at home. The Lakers and Heat were profitable away from home, so it may be to your benefit to wait until the public teams hit the road if you want to
bet on them.
Watch out for teams that the public falls for during the season as well. Blake Griffith captured the imagination of the nation. He also led the Los Angeles Clippers to a 37-44-1 ATS mark.
Don’t be afraid to fade public teams in the
second half. The Lakers are a typical “chase play” for many gamblers in the second half as they try to recoup losses. An SBR moderator once pointed out that one could almost make a living fading Los Angeles in the second half. Try it for yourself.
Rule #2. Home moneylines can be your friend.
The home-court advantage is alive and well in the NBA. Before next season (and you may have a while, depending on the
NBA lockout situation), read
Scorecasting by
Tobias Moscowitz and
L. Jon Wertheim.
Home teams in full arenas actually do tend to get favorable calls in all sports. If you feel confident in a home team, but are shaky on giving up the points, take the moneyline. It’s higher risk, but you have a great chance at success.
Speaking of officiating . . .
Rule #3. Research the officials.
Just like there are
‘over’ and ‘under’ umpires in baseball, there are ‘over’ and ‘under’ refs in basketball. Plenty of websites can provide you with statistical information on each official, including the records of teams with the zebras. The fact that Mark Lindsay loves home teams (38-23 ATS) and the ‘under’ was 46-26 with Rodney Mott on the court does matter. Always consider the stripes before making a wager if the information is available to you.
Rule #4. The public usually ignores relevant information.
We’ve already looked at public issues with teams such as Los Angeles, Boston, and Miami. The public tends to make other mistakes as well. All of us have seen those NBA lines that look incorrect, with a bad team as a small underdog or even a favorite against a perceived better team. Before you jump on this “lock”, do your research. Is there an injury, travel issue, or scheduling issue involved in the game? You should know those factors in regard to any game that you decide to bet. If a good team is playing on the second night of a back-to-back after visiting the elevation of Denver, that’s relevant.
Rule #5. Practice solid money management.
Please don’t wager your entire bankroll on the Lakers against the Pistons because “the Pistons suck.” That is a sure recipe to live in your parents’ basement eating macaroni and cheese for the next year. 2% of your bankroll is plenty on any given NBA play, and I do not recommend more than 2-3 plays per evening. If you find more than that, you’re probably guessing.
Increase your bets when you win, decrease when you lose. Never chase losses.
The NBA is tough, but winnable.
If you do your homework, manage your money, and tread lightly with popular teams, NBA betting can be a winning proposition. Here’s hoping we get a chance to use these strategies in 2011-2012.