The playoffs provide a unique situation for both NBA teams and NBA handicappers.
In the NBA playoffs, teams face each other multiple times in a row, which is of course something that never happens in the regular season. As a result, some idiosyncratic NBA handicapping, betting, and bookmaking situations can arise.
First, teams can make immediate adjustments to address advantages a specific opponent may demonstrate, which is not a factor that comes into play in the regular season. Secondly, unique situational and motivational factors can also play a role, since to a losing team there is no difference between getting swept and losing 4 games to 3, and to a winning team there is little difference between sweeping and winning 4 games to 3, other than injury, rest and rust factors.
And thirdly, substantial miscalculation by the market of a particular team’s ability or matchup with an opponent can linger for several games in a row, as extreme market readjustments are relatively unlikely to occur in short time spans.
The public and the sharps tend to react in predictable ways to these various situations that arise in NBA playoff series, and according to Doc, the Head Linesman at Legends Sportsbook, the books do adjust their lines in response to these expected betting patterns, and find themselves repeatedly “rooting” for similar certain on-court game and series results year-in and year-out.
For example, if a big favorite loses a Game 1 in a series, the Game 2 moneyline will usually be inflated relative to the spread, according to Doc. The public tends to like to bet on “zig-zag” results – betting on a favored team that has lost their last game, and being not particularly sensitive to the magnitude of the NBA lines that get offered.
When series do follow a zig-zag pattern, it is usually bad for the sportsbooks, while results that get repeated are usually good for the books. Doc, in fact said that his best case scenario for an NBA playoff series is “4 and out”, despite the fact that that would result in fewer games and money-making opportunities.
This occurred in the 2011 NBA playoff series between the Los Angeles Lakers and the New Orleans Hornets, which wound up being a losing series for the books overall. After the Lakers lost Game 1 as a favorite, they got a lot of action to win Game 2 outright, despite an inflated moneyline, and when they did, the books took a loss.
The series involving the Memphis Grizzlies and the Atlanta Hawks, however, were good for the books. Both teams were undervalued and covered most of their spreads, including numerous straight-up wins as underdogs.
So despite both series having the “Game 1 loss, Game 2 win by a big favorite” situation that is bad for the books, according to Doc the lion’s share of NBA betting came in action against underdogs Memphis and Atlanta, which of course, mostly wound up being losing action for the public.
Doc’s interesting interview with SBRtv gave further insights into booking the NBA playoffs, with specifics on how the 2011 playoffs have gone so far.