The Eastern Confernce Finals have reached a critical moment. Game 4 now looks like it could be the final for the Chicago Bulls. Win and they have the momentum to go on and take the series, lose and it can only be Miami's.
Thanks to a 9-0 run midway through the fourth quarter on Sunday, the Miami Heat took a 2-1 series lead with a 96-85 win in Game 3 of the Eastern conference Finals. The Bulls and Heat will be back at it on Tuesday, with Miami looking to take a 3-1 series lead, and the Bulls looking to take back home-court advantage heading to Chicago for Game 5.
Chicago Bulls
Chicago’s usually reliable defense failed in Game 3 as it allowed the Heat to shoot 50.7 percent from the field, marking just the second time they allowed an opponent to shoot over 50 percent this postseason. The Bulls are now 2-10 this season when their opponent makes at least half of its shots. Despite out-rebounding Miami 49-38 in Game 3, the Bulls have lost consecutive games for the first time since February 5-7. After scoring 28 points in the Game 1 win, Derrick Rose has been held to 21 and 20 points in the past two contests, marking the first time this postseason that Rose has had consecutive games of scoring 21 points or fewer. Carlos Boozer was outstanding for Chicago on Sunday, scoring 26 points and collecting 17 rebounds. He became the fourth Bull to produce at least 25 points and 15 rebounds in a playoff game since 1991.
Miami Heat
Chris Bosh proved to teammates LeBron James and Dwyane Wade that they are not the only ones who can take over a game. Bosh scored 34 points on 13-of-18 shooting to lead the Heat in Game 3. Bosh now has a .674 field-goal percentage (29-for-43) in the series. Over the past 26 years (1986–2011), only Wade (.688 vs. Detroit in 2006) and the Lakers’ Pau Gasol (.696 vs. Phoenix in 2010) had higher field-goal percentages through the first three games of a Conference Finals series than Bosh (minimum: 25 field goals). James handled the ball more often in Game 3, but elected to create for others more than himself. James had a touch on 75.3 percent of the possessions he was on court and shot on just 20.3 percent of them. James’ 10 assists Sunday led to 21 Heat points, compared to just 11 assists and 24 points in the first two games combined.
Betting trends
Miami has done an excellent job holding the Bulls down in the half-court offense in the past two games, as the Bulls shot just 30.6 percent in Game 2 and 40.3 percent in Game 3 in half-court possessions. The Heat looks like they are ready to take over the series. I like Miami to take a commanding 3-1 series lead with a win and cover on Tuesday.
The NBA betting trends expect the Heat to win again:
Play On - Home teams (MIAMI) - when leading in a playoff series, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record. (55-23 over the last 5 seasons.) (70.5%, +29.7 units. Rating = 3*).
These trends are also expecting a high-scoring game to finish above the total. One of these three-star trends backing the Over is:
Play Over - All teams where the total is 179.5 or less (CHICAGO) - off a road loss by 10 points or more, extremely well rested team - playing 5 or less games in 14 days. (30-8 since 1996.) (78.9%, +21.2 units. Rating = 3*).