The Under has been somewhat of a cash cow in the NBA Playoffs, especially in the latter games of a long series and in the NBA Finals. Keep a close eye out for long series this year.
When betting totals in the NBA playoffs, a favorite strategy of mine is betting Unders in the right circumstances.
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Those circumstances are betting the Under in the Finals and Game 6 or Game 7 of any playoff series. I like to target the Under in these situations because both teams look to control the pace and play a slower and defensive minded style of game. Every possession in these big games is extremely critical. They also tend to be more physical and the refs let the guys play, so you do not get as many free throw attempts which kill Unders.
The Finals have been profitable for Under bettors over the years. Last year the Under cashed in four of the five games between the Lakers and Magic. The four Unders that cashed stayed Under the posted total by an average of 14.8 points. Talk about a no sweat bet!
In the 2007-2008 Finals between the Celtics and Lakers the Over/Under split an even 3-3. In the 2006-2007 Finals between the Cavs and Spurs the Under cashed in three of the four games. The three Unders that cashed in that series stayed below the posted total by an average of 19.1 points! The Under is 10-5 (67%) in the NBA Finals over the past three seasons.
The same goes when betting games 6 and 7 of a playoff series. Last year in round one all of the series that made it to Game 6 and Game 7, the Under was 4-2. In the Conference semifinals the Celtics/Magic and Rockets/Lakers were the only ones to make it to Game 6 and Game 7, the Under was 4-0 in those games. In the Conference Finals both series reached game six and the Over cashed in both of those games.
Overall in 2008-2009 if you bet the Under in Game 6 and Game 7 of every series, and bet the Under throughout the NBA finals you would have won 71 percent of the time, cashing on the Under in 12 of 17 bets!
Think Under not Over late in a series and during the Finals. Best of luck this NBA playoffs guys!