Miami Heat over Boston Celtics for the series win in South Beach

Wednesday night in south Florida could either be the beginning of a courageous stand, or the end of an era for the defending Eastern Conference champion Boston Celtics. Facing a 3-games-to-1 deficit, with a battered and bruised starting lineup, a point guard whose left arm would have sidelined most other mortals, and a road crowd eager to exact revenge for last year’s first-round shellacking suffered by the Heat, Doc Rivers’ team will put the meaning of the phrase “Celtics Pride” to the ultimate test.

To prevail in what is a must-win game, the Celtics must first shake the bitter aftertaste of an overtime loss in Game 4, a contest that they had numerous chances to win. Paul Pierce missed a fadeaway jumper as time expired at the end of regulation that could have won the game and evened the series at 2-2. Boston was uncharacteristically out of position in the half-court set for the final play that it wanted to execute. In the overtime, the Celtics looked fatigued and sloppy as they committed as many turnovers (four) as they scored points.

If bouncing back after winning a high-energy Game 3 was a concern, bouncing back off the Game 4 loss should be a greater concern for Boston. Thirty-four-year-old Kevin Garnett played 41 minutes on Monday night, scoring just seven points on 1-for-10 shooting. Thirty-five-year-old Ray Allen played 45 out of a possible 50 minutes, shooting just 5-for-12 on the night for 17 points. Chasing Dwyane Wade all over the court certainly did not make matters easier. Pierce, who tallied 45 minutes in the loss, led the team with 27 points, but committed two key turnovers in overtime.

Now the Celtics version of the big three must summon the energy and will to stave off elimination when their point guard, Rajon Rondo, is still slowed from his dislocated elbow suffered in Game 3. He finished with 10 points and five assists in 38 minutes, and with one good arm. Delonte West spelled Rondo and contributed 30 key minutes, but he was also plagued by two late turnovers near the end of the game, squandering precious possessions. As for Shaquille O’Neal, he only played four minutes. A shell of his former all-NBA self, speculation has been rampant that the end of the Celtics season could also mark the end of his Hall-of-Fame career. Head coach Rivers, who is not under contract beyond this season, hears that ticking clock grow more ominous by the game. Still, an aging, wounded squad remains dangerous in the eyes of Heat coach Erik Spoelstra. "We can expect their best," Spoelstra said. "We know we're getting their best effort and I'm sure they'll play well. We'll have to play better."

The Heat’s big three of Wade, Chris Bosh and LeBron James performed Monday as team president Pat Riley had dreamed they would when he orchestrated the off-season signings to bring the trio together. James and Wade scored 35 and 28 respectively, while Bosh chipped in with 20 points and 12 rebounds, including a key rebound and put-back in overtime which sealed the deal. James made a clutch three-point shot with two minutes to go in regulation that tied the game at 84, and was described as a back-breaker by Allen. Wade’s basket with 2:01 to go in overtime gave the team a six-point lead, robbing the sellout crowd of most of its hope. "We executed well down the stretch defensively and offensively," said Heat forward James Jones. "I think it was just our presence of mind, our determination.”

While Wade’s Miami Heat went down to Boston in five games last spring, James’s squad, the Cleveland Cavaliers fell to the Celtics in six games in the conference semifinals. While each player is motivated by a need to exorcise postseason demons against Boston, they are also keenly aware of how dangerous the Celtics still are, adversity aside, and do not want to give Rivers’ team a second chance to make a championship impression. "This is not a team that you let your guard down against," Wade said. "No way," instantly chimed in James, as he stood on Wade's left. Which Garnett appears Wednesday night could go a long way towards determining whether the Celtics get to show up for a Game 6 Friday night (Friday the 13th of course) at home. Garnett’s 28-point, 18-rebound Game 3 performance dwarfed his abysmal seven-point, 10-rebound game Monday. The big ticket knows that the hour is late, and the margin for error is non-existent. "When our back is against the wall, that's when we show great resilience," Garnett said. "We'll see what we're made of."

The NBA free pick here is for Miami to win the toughest one of them all, the close-out game, on its home court. The following two NBA betting trends support picking the Heat to win and cover.

Play On - Home teams (MIAMI) - when leading in a playoff series, a good team (60% to 75%) playing a team with a winning record. (54-22 over the last 5 seasons.) (71.1%, +29.8 units. Rating = 3*).

Play Against - Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (BOSTON) - poor foul-drawing team - attempting <=24 free throws/game, good shooting team - shooting >=46% on the season. (192-119 over the last 5 seasons.) (61.7%, +61.1 units. Rating = 2*).