The lockout appears to have had a large effect on NBA betting, as the ‘unders’ have dominated this season with tight scheduling and home court advantage in the West has been more critical than ever.
We are now one month into the 2011-12 NBA season, and certain trends have started to emerge that can be directly attributable to the extended lockout, most obviously the huge success of ‘unders’ and Western Conference home teams vs. the NBA odds early on.
Remember that teams did not have any official summer workouts this season and they had just three weeks to prepare for the official NBA season opener once the lockout was finally lifted. When you add in a condensed schedule that many times sees teams playing three games in three nights, it is not surprising that there have been many tired legs already, meaning that you should almost always take a long look at the ‘under’ when making your NBA picks.
Another side effect of the lockout has been the improved success off the home teams compared to prior seasons. This is probably due in no small part to the road teams being more fatigued than usual with the schedule so condensed, meaning that home court advantage should be inherently more advantageous than usual in this post-lockout environment.
While all home teams have performed above the norm against the spread, Western Conference home teams have been off the charts. Is this merely a coincidence? Well, perhaps not. Remember that the vast majority of NBA games are played at night, and the condensed schedule has left visiting teams from outside the Pacific Time zone less time to become acclimated to the time difference, especially teams from the East.
Here are some precise NBA trends over the first month of this season, based on the closing odds at Pinnacle Sports through the games of Thursday, January 26, 2012.
It’s an Underful World
There have been 271 games played in the post-lockout NBA so far, and blindly playing all of the ‘unders’ has gone 153-113-5, 57.5 percent with an average combined total score of 188.9 points. Compare that to a normal year like last season where the ‘under’ hit at 51.7 percent during the regular season with those games averaging 199.0 points for a drop-off of a shade over 10 points per game!
Things have been so wacky in the NBA so far that the two best ‘under’ teams have been the New York Knicks (13-5) and the Phoenix Suns (12-5). Those would be Coach Mike D’Antoni’s current and former teams, and it is fairly well known that his philosophy is to try and outscore teams by running them off the floor with defense being an afterthought. The NBA Champion Dallas Mavericks are third in the ‘under’ parade at 13-6.
The ‘under’ in all conference games only has gone 108-71-3, 60.3 percent. Not unlike other sports, conference games are more important than non-conference games because of potential tiebreakers at year’s end, so teams generally play things closer to the vest in these more critical games while they loosen up a bit when playing teams out of conference. The average combined total score of conference games this season has been only 187.2 points, compared to non-conference games that have averaged 192.3 points with the ‘under’ going 45-42. Even that average point output is down from past seasons though. The ‘under’ is 55-34-1, 61.8 percent in Western Conference games (in conference only) and 53-27-2, 58.9 percent in Eastern Conference games (in conference).
The ‘under’ in conference games if a team went ‘over’ in its last game is 84-51, 61.2 percent.: When a team has managed to get involved in a fast-paced game, it has apparently taken so much out of it with so many games close together that it has had trouble playing an up-and-down style in consecutive games, especially when facing conference opponents. Conference games involving teams that went ‘over’ in their last game have averaged only 186.4 points.
The ‘under’ in conference games if a team was on the road in its last game has gone 93-61-4, 60.4 percent. As mentioned, traveling could potentially take more out of teams this season than usual with games closer together, and that appears to be a contributing factor to this angle. The average combined total score in conference games when a team is coming off of a road game has been 188.1 points. Breaking this down further, if a team is now home in conference following a road game, the ‘under’ is 53-33-2, 61.6 percent with an average total score of 186.7 points. If a team is now on the road in conference following a road game, the ‘under’ is 40-28-2, 58.8 percent with an average score of 189.8 points.
Home sweet home
Blindly betting on all hone teams should be close to a 50/50 proposition in the long run ATS, and in fact home teams went 619-662-30, 48.3 percent against the spread last season. It as been a whole new world this post lockout year however, as all home teams have blindly gone 143-127-1, 53.0 percent. Western Conference home teams have been like ATM machines, going a lucrative 83-60-1, 58.0 percent ATS!
It is an Eastern Conference team that has the best home ATS record in the league though in the Philadelphia 76ers at 8-2, followed by a couple of Western Conference teams in the Portland Trail Blazers (7-2) and the Los Angeles Clippers (8-3).
Betting against any road team coming off of a home game is 78-49-1, 61.4 percent ATS this season. We have already discussed the extra advantage of being home this season and the added effect of travelling, and this trend actually combines the two with teams leaving the comforts of home and hitting the road. Furthermore, if the team is now visiting a Western Conference team, the fade is 42-23-1, 64.6 percent.
Betting against any road team coming off of two of more home games is 42-24-1, 63.6 percent ATS this season. This only amplifies the logic behind the previous angle, as leaving home has had an even bigger effect if teams are off of multiple-gamed home stands. To take this point one step further, albeit with a much small sampling, betting against road teams coming off of three or more home games has gone 22-12, 64.7 percent in the post-lockout era.
Betting against any road underdog coming off of a home game is 58-26, 69.0 percent ATS this season. Are you sensing a theme here? It has been hard to find any bad times to fade road teams coming off of home games this season, but this looks like the best angle yet since the fact that they are underdogs usually means that they are not as good as their opponents anyway.
Conference home favorites coming off of an ATS loss have gone 40-17, 70.2 percent ATS this season. That bears repeating, 40-17, 70.2 percent! Professional teams in any sport usually want to erase memories of weak performances as quickly as possible, and what better time to do so than when a team is favored and playing at home? Facing conference opponents usually helps because a team is familiar with its foe and the dynamics of the post-lockout NBA have helped this trend in almost every respect.
Betting against road underdogs coming off of a straight up win has gone 48-25, 65.8 percent ATS this season. Besides the fact that road underdogs are usually not as good as their opponents, road dogs coming off of a straight up win have been especially terrible in the NBA so far this year, and we can think of at least two reasons why this might be the case. One possibility is that a team is feeling good about itself (perhaps too good) following a win and may be a tad overconfident despite the fact that it is an underdog in its next game. Another possibility is that a team used up a lot of energy in winning its last game, and for reasons already stated it is hard to match that intensity in the next game if playing on the road.
Betting against any road underdog coming off of two or more straight up wins is 26-8, 76.5 percent ATS this season. We just mentioned the potential pitfalls of road underdog coming off of one win, but if these teams are coming off of winning streaks if two or more, it has been especially tough for underdogs to continue that streak on the road.
Home teams playing their third game in three days are 9-3, 75.0 ATS. Yes you read that correctly and although the sampling is tiny, this is more evidence that playing at home during a condensed schedule is more important than anything else. Obviously, the natural inclination would be to fade teams playing the last leg of a back-to-back-to-back, and oddsmakers even shade the lines on teams in that situation, but since it seemingly has not bothered teams playing at home in that third game that much, the line shading has actually given the home teams value. Conversely, and as you might expect, road teams playing their third games in three nights have gone 0-3 against the spread.