It has been an interesting NBA Playoff season so far with so many perennial powerhouses getting knocked out early. Thus, there will be a new NBA Champion this season, but what has rally stood out over the last two rounds of the playoffs the last 10 years have bee the success of the ‘under’ and the road teams. That is something to once again keep a keen eye on this season.
We are now deeper into the NBA Playoffs, and after looking at betting trends specific to the first two rounds in earlier articles based on results of the last 10 years, we now conclude our series by looking at the last two rounds, the conference finals and the NBA Finals, combined.
It has certainly been a strange journey in the playoffs so far with the top seeded San Antonio Spurs losing to the eighth seeded Memphis Grizzlies in the first round and with the Los Angeles Lakers and Boston Celtics both bowing out in the second round.
Moving forward, what really stands out in the last two rounds when compared to the earlier rounds is the success of the ‘under’, further fueling the familiar adage that “defense wins championships!” In fact, the ‘under’ is 100-70-1, 58.8 percent in the last two playoff rounds combined since the 2000-01 Season, based on the closing betting odds from Pinnacle Sports.
The best ‘under’ team among the teams still in the playoffs at this late stage has been the Miami Heat, as the ‘under’ is 14-5, 73.7 percent in conference final and NBA Final games involving Miami in the last 10 years. The Dallas Mavericks are the next best ‘under’ team remaining over the final two rounds during this same time span at 12-6, 66.7 percent.
Overall, the ‘under’ is 67-49, 57.8 percent against the NBA odds in the conference finals and 33-21-1, 61.1 percent in the NBA Finals since 2001.
Moving on to sides, it is interesting that no team seeded lower than fourth has made it as far as the conference finals over the last 10 years, which is a bad omen for the eighth seeded Grizzlies in their second round series vs. the fourth seeded Oklahoma City Thunder. Also, the road teams have had the edge in the final two rounds, as they are 92-77-2, 54.4 percent in NBA betting the last 10 playoff seasons.
Interestingly, the four seeds have not followed this road trend, going just 8-8 against the NBA betting odds away from home over the last two rounds. That means that if you only bet the top three seeds on the road in the last two rounds over the last 10 years, you would be a very solid 84-69-1, 54.7 percent vs. the number.
Finally, the so-called Zigzag theory that says to bet on the team that lost the previous game straight up within a series to cover the point spread in the next game has been a bust overall in the final two rounds, going only 71-69-1, 50.7 percent overall.
Let us now take a look at specific trends in the last two rounds specific to each of the top four seeds.
1-seeds: The top seeds have been terrible bets during the conference finals, going just 41-57-1 against the spread for a nice 58.2 percent fade. The breakdown of this record is interesting though, as the top seeds are an atrocious 18-35 ATS as favorites for a great 66.0 percent fade during the conference finals, while they are one game over .500 at 23-22-1 as underdogs during this round. The one seeds have been good bets as underdogs on the Zigzag however, going 13-8, 61.9 percent against the number when getting points off of a loss. As mentioned, top seeds usually play good defense, so the ‘under’ is 58-41, 58.6 percent in conference final games involving top seeds.
Once they get to the NBA Finals, the one seeds are much better at 22-17, 56.5 percent ATS overall, but that included six games where two one seeds opposed each other when the Celtics played the Lakers in the 2008 NBA Finals. If we toss those games and only look at one seeds facing lower seeds from the opposite conference, the one seeds are an excellent 16-11, 59.3 percent in final round. Also, all one seeds are 14-9, 60.9 percent as underdogs, and that includes the Battle of the Ones in 2008. The ‘under’ is a lucrative 18-8-1, 69.2 percent in the Finals when a top seed is facing a lower seed.
2-seeds: Unlike the top seeds, the two seeds have been great bets in the conference semifinal round, going 42-26-1, 61.8 percent against the spread overall. Most impressive is that the two seeds are 37-19-1, 66.1 percent ATS when playing against one seeds in this round! Conversely, the twos are just 5-7 ATS when facing lower seeds in the conference finals. The second seeds have been at their best as underdogs in this round, going 24-11, 68.6 percent ATS in that role including a phenomenal 8-2, 80.0 percent ATS as underdogs coming off of a loss. The ‘under’ has again been a good bet in conference final games involving two seeds, going 42-27, 60.9 percent including 23-13, 63.9 percent when the two seed is on the road.
On the other hand, the two seeds have been poor bets in the NBA Finals going just 14-25-1 ATS for a 64.1 percent fade. This includes seven games where a couple of two seeds faced each other when the San Antonio Spurs squared off with the Detroit Pistons in 2005. If you disregard those games, then the two seeds are a dreadful 7-18 ATS in the NBA Finals for a 72.0 percent fade! Surprisingly, the two seeds are even only 3-10 ATS in the underdog role vs. non-two seeds. Also, the ‘under’ is 18-8, 69.2 percent in the NBA Finals when two seeds face non-twos.
3-seeds: The three seeds have a nondescript 24-23, 51.1 percent overall ATS mark in the conference finals, although most of that has come vs. higher seeds, against whom they are just 20-22 against the spread. However, in the only conference final series the last 10 years where a three seed faced a four seed, the third seeded Spurs went 4-1 ATS against the fourth seeded Utah Jazz in 2007. The three seeds are 15-12, 55.0 percent this round as underdogs including 15-11, 57.7 percent AYS vs. higher seeds. There is not much here in the way of totals, as the ‘under’ is 13-10, 56.5 percent when the three seeds are home.
A total of four NBA three seeds have made it to the NBA Finals in the last 10 yards, and those clubs are collective 10-7-1, 58.8 percent, with the ‘under’ going 11-7, 61.1 percent in all Finals games involving three seeds. Note that all 18 of those games were vs. higher seeds though, and the three seeds went a scintillating 7-1-1, 87.5 percent ATS vs. two seeds, compared to just 3-6, 33.3 percent ATS vs. top seeds. Surprisingly, the three seeds have only been underdogs five times in the NBA Finals since 2001 regardless of the opponent, and they are 3-1-1 ATS in those games.
4-seeds: There have been three fourth seeds to reach the conference finals in the last 10 years, and those clubs are 8-9 ATS this round with the ‘under’ going 9-8. It should be noted that the four seeds have gone 5-4 ATS as favorites and 3-5 ATS as underdogs, meaning that simply betting the favorite in all conference final games involving four seeds would have netted you a record of 10-7, 58.8 percent ATS.
Two of those four seeds advanced to the NBA Finals including the Boston Celtics last season, and the fours are a solid 8-5, 61.5 percent in the Finals with the ‘under’ going a lucrative 9-3-1, 75.0 percent in those games.