The NBA’s Eastern Conference Finals got underway on Sunday
night to record ratings and an easy cover for the Chicago Bulls – but Miami remains
the favorite. Tonight we get to see the Western half take to the court.
So let’s take an NBA betting look at the West Finals,
which begin on Tuesday night between Dallas and Oklahoma City. The Mavericks
have opened as -215 series favorites on Bodog and 6-point favorites for Game 1,
but it should be interesting to see how rusty Dirk Nowitzki and Co. are as the
Mavs will have gone nine days without playing after they swept the Lakers while
the Thunder and Grizzlies went seven games. All that rest could be just what
the doctor ordered, however, as Dallas is a very veteran club. The young
Thunder shouldn’t have any issues opening the West Finals just over 48 hours
after finishing off Memphis.
The favorite on the exact series line at Bodog is the
Mavericks winning this series in seven games at +300. And that would definitely
favor Dallas as it owns home-court advantage in this series and home teams are
58-14 in Game 7s since the ABA-NBA merger before the 1976-77 season. The
longest shot on exact series finish is the Thunder sweeping Dallas at +2800.
The Mavericks seem the deeper club as the Thunder generally
go as Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook go. In Sunday’s 105-90 win over
Memphis, Durant had 39 points to bounce back from a subpar Game 6 – those 39
points were the fourth-most in NBA history for a player in his first playoff
Game 7 and the fifth-most in any Game 7 in the past 15 years. Westbrook had
been getting criticized for shooting too much vs. the Grizzlies but was stellar
in Game 7, scoring 14 points, matching his season-high with 14 assists and
adding 10 rebounds. It was just the fifth postseason triple-double in Game 7
history. Oklahoma City is now 42-14 when Westbrook assists on at least 16
points. The Thunder are in the franchise’s first West Finals since 1996 when
the team was in Seattle.
Shawn Marion likely will draw the main task of defending
Durant, with the NBA’s two-time scoring champion having averaged 29.3 points on
52.4 percent shooting against Dallas in the regular season. Bodog lists
Durant’s over/under scoring average for this series at 28.0. The Mavs had good
success on Westbrook during the regular season, holding him to 14-for-44
shooting (31.8 percent). It’s one of the worst shooting percentages Westbrook
had against any opponent this year. His over/under points per game average in
this series is at 21.0.
As for Nowitzki, he averaged 23.5 points on 61.9 percent
shooting vs. the Thunder in the regular season. His over/under for points per
game in this series is 25.5. Oklahoma City’s long-armed Serge Ibaka will get
the main defensive call on Dirk.
Dallas won two of the three regular-season meetings. The
only loss came Jan. 6, falling 99-95 at home when Nowitzki was out injured (an
injury he suffered a few games prior vs. the Thunder). Mavericks swingman Caron
Butler played well in both Dallas wins but was already lost for the season in
the Mavs' lone loss. He is trying to work his way back from injury but still
isn’t considered likely to play. Dallas center Tyson Chandler played well vs.
the Thunder this year as well, averaging 12.7 points and 15.3 boards, both well
above his regular averages. His over/under on average rebounds per game in this
one is at 9.5 on Bodog.