NBA Western Conference Finals Betting Preview

By: | www.sbrforum.com

The NBA’s Eastern Conference Finals got underway on Sunday night to record ratings and an easy cover for the Chicago Bulls – but Miami remains the favorite. Tonight we get to see the Western half take to the court.


Dirk Nowitzki
 

So let’s take an NBA betting look at the West Finals, which begin on Tuesday night between Dallas and Oklahoma City. The Mavericks have opened as -215 series favorites on Bodog and 6-point favorites for Game 1, but it should be interesting to see how rusty Dirk Nowitzki and Co. are as the Mavs will have gone nine days without playing after they swept the Lakers while the Thunder and Grizzlies went seven games. All that rest could be just what the doctor ordered, however, as Dallas is a very veteran club. The young Thunder shouldn’t have any issues opening the West Finals just over 48 hours after finishing off Memphis.

The favorite on the exact series line at Bodog is the Mavericks winning this series in seven games at +300. And that would definitely favor Dallas as it owns home-court advantage in this series and home teams are 58-14 in Game 7s since the ABA-NBA merger before the 1976-77 season. The longest shot on exact series finish is the Thunder sweeping Dallas at +2800.

The Mavericks seem the deeper club as the Thunder generally go as Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook go. In Sunday’s 105-90 win over Memphis, Durant had 39 points to bounce back from a subpar Game 6 – those 39 points were the fourth-most in NBA history for a player in his first playoff Game 7 and the fifth-most in any Game 7 in the past 15 years. Westbrook had been getting criticized for shooting too much vs. the Grizzlies but was stellar in Game 7, scoring 14 points, matching his season-high with 14 assists and adding 10 rebounds. It was just the fifth postseason triple-double in Game 7 history. Oklahoma City is now 42-14 when Westbrook assists on at least 16 points. The Thunder are in the franchise’s first West Finals since 1996 when the team was in Seattle.

Shawn Marion likely will draw the main task of defending Durant, with the NBA’s two-time scoring champion having averaged 29.3 points on 52.4 percent shooting against Dallas in the regular season. Bodog lists Durant’s over/under scoring average for this series at 28.0. The Mavs had good success on Westbrook during the regular season, holding him to 14-for-44 shooting (31.8 percent). It’s one of the worst shooting percentages Westbrook had against any opponent this year. His over/under points per game average in this series is at 21.0.

As for Nowitzki, he averaged 23.5 points on 61.9 percent shooting vs. the Thunder in the regular season. His over/under for points per game in this series is 25.5. Oklahoma City’s long-armed Serge Ibaka will get the main defensive call on Dirk.

Dallas won two of the three regular-season meetings. The only loss came Jan. 6, falling 99-95 at home when Nowitzki was out injured (an injury he suffered a few games prior vs. the Thunder). Mavericks swingman Caron Butler played well in both Dallas wins but was already lost for the season in the Mavs' lone loss. He is trying to work his way back from injury but still isn’t considered likely to play. Dallas center Tyson Chandler played well vs. the Thunder this year as well, averaging 12.7 points and 15.3 boards, both well above his regular averages. His over/under on average rebounds per game in this one is at 9.5 on Bodog.


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