Baylor vs. Oklahoma NCAA Basketball Pick

Suddenly, Cinderella's slipper is missing. The Baylor Bears days as a chic pick to win the Big 12 have come to a screeching halt following a pair of losses that ended a 17-0 run to begin the season. 

If there can be any good news after suffering consecutive defeats in conference play, the Bears did at least pick a good time to do it. Saturday saw several upsets on the NCAA basketball betting schedule, as well as some near-misses. Baylor began last week ranked third in the country, and only dropped to 6/7 in the AP and coaches polls respectively. 

Oh, by the way, it's not like the Bears were playing cupcakes in either of the two losses. Missouri, who slipped past Baylor on its own court Saturday by an 89-88 count, is now No. 2 in both sets of rankings while Kansas is No. 5 after throttling the Bears 92-74 in Lawrence. 

More good news is Scott Drew and Baylor will have a chance to get even with both the Tigers and Jayhawks in a couple of weeks. But first, there's a tough little four-game stretch that includes three games away from Waco, beginning Tuesday night in Norman against the Oklahoma Sooners (9 PM ET). Baylor opened as a 5.5 point favorite with 143 for the total. Early actions has slightly altered the NCAA basketball odds, which now list the total at 144.5.

The Bears have to put last week behind them and focus on these next four games one-by-one if they're going to have any momentum going into the rematches with Missouri and Kansas. Baylor is much better than any of the four teams in this stretch, much better. But there are some potential pitfalls with Texas in Waco this Saturday followed by road games at Texas A&M and Oklahoma State. The biggest danger in that mix might be the game in Stillwater against the Cowboys, something NCAA Basketball bettors will no doubt want to keep in mind since that is the match before the Bears host Kansas and then travel to Missouri. 

Both losses last week were completely different animals. The Jayhawks were ready to play, had the crowd behind them and would've beaten anyone that showed up at Allen Fieldhouse that night. Baylor looked lost, completely out of its class. 

Saturday was a case of sloppy play against Mizzou, with the Bears making mental mistakes in additions to turnovers on the court. The Tigers outmuscled and outhustled their way on the boards, and most alarming were the breakdowns on defense by Baylor's frontline that often found someone out of position or simply not paying attention. Perry Jones III was all but a nonfactor in the game, and the Bears won't survive long come March when that happens. 

Drew's crew was no doubt facing two elite teams in the country, especially on the offensive end. Still, Baylor never really made either the Jayhawks or Tigers uncomfortable, and getting their defense in order will be something to watch in this matchup with the Sooners. The Bears have allowed three of their last five opponents to convert at least 50% from the field, the OVER a perfect 5-0 in that stretch. 

The last bit of good news for Baylor coming off the setbacks is Tuesday's foe is off to a rough start in Big 12 play. Oklahoma sits just 2-4 since the new year began, all conference tilts and the Sooners managing to cover the sports betting odds just once in that span. They have played better at Noble Center where they're 2-1 with the only loss to Kansas. 

Oklahoma is allowing 73.3 PPG so far in the six Big 12 contests, which ranks last in the conference in that department. The offense has countered with 66 per contest, seventh in the league, and a good part of that has come in two games, the 82-73 upset win over Kansas State and last Saturday's 81-75 overtime loss at Texas A&M. 

Lon Kruger and Company lost a big part of their offense just after the season started when Calvin Newell Jr. decided to transfer out of Oklahoma to be closer to his family in Philadelphia. Newell's perimeter offense is something that the Sooners might dearly miss in this contest. Steven Pledger has been the only consistent threat from 3-point range since Newell left, and while Pledger is hitting nearly 44% from outside the arc overall this season, he's just 10 of 31 (32%) the last five games. 

The teams met three times last season, Baylor winning the first matchup in Waco before Oklahoma won outright as the underdog in Norman and then during the Big 12 Tournament in Kansas City. The Sooners really embarrassed the Bears in that tourney game, winning by 17 with Jones being ruled ineligible for Baylor just before the game. 

Taking a Chance: Is the -4.5 on Baylor a trap? The Sooners were getting just 3.5 Saturday against the Aggies, and while that was on the road, there is a world of difference in the talent level that Baylor has compared to Texas A&M. How much higher would the line be if the Bears grabbed one extra defensive rebound or committed one less turnover vs. Missouri?