Even though Davidson is 7-9 and Furman is 8-7, Davidson may actually still be a bit of an underlay as road favorites tonight, given the quality of the teams these clubs have faced.
While the Davidson Wildcats are 7-9 and the Furman Paladins are 8-7 this season, we actually feel that this game is a bit of a mismatch in favor of Davidson, and this is one of the few times that we feel comfortable laying this many points on the road.
You must consider that except for an upset loss to Appalachian State on Saturday, the Wildcats were actually underdogs in each of their other eight losses, losing to the likes of Gonzaga, Butler, Rhode Island and a Cornell team that nearly knocked off Kansas. That loss to Appalachian notwithstanding, the grueling non-conference schedule Davidson faced should serve them well vs. the lesser teams of the Southern Conference.
Now granted, the 142 ranking for Davidson in the Pomeroy Ratings is not as high as from the days of Stephon Curry, but they are still ranked light years ahead of Furman, at 264! Also, this team has not lost its shooting touch since Curry moved on to the NBA, as the Wildcats are hitting on 37.3 percent of their three-point shots, which ranks 73 in the nation.
Meanwhile, outside of a road game at Clemson, Furman has not really faced anyone of note, so their record must be taken with a grain of salt. In fact, they have a losing 4-6 record against the spread, and their only home cover all year came vs. Dartmouth, an Ivy League school that has one of the worst teams in the country according to Pomeroy, ranking 333 out of 347 Division I schools.
Furman ranks poorly in both offensive efficiency (.958 points per possession, ranking 239) and defensive PPP (1.067, ranking 273), and they are only hitting on a dismal 44.0 percent of their two-point shots. If Davidson has a typical shooting night, the Paladins simply lack the firepower to keep pace.
Davidson had now won eight straight head-to-head meetings with Furman, and we look for them to make it nine straight in double-digit fashion tonight.
Free NCAAB Pick: Davidson -6 (-110)