Duke at Maryland NCAA basketball pick

It's only natural to assume the ACC race on the hardwood is between Duke and North Carolina.  The 2012 title may indeed wind up in the hands of the Blue Devils or Tar Heels eventually, but the past few days suggest some lucky folks holding futures odds on other ACC teams might be heading for a big payday. 

Don't tear up your tickets on Duke or UNC just yet.  The Blue Devils' loss to Florida State in a Saturday thriller still has them sharing the top of the ranks as one of three teams at 4-1 in the ACC standings.  North Carolina losing guard Dexter Strickland for the season to a knee injury is a bigger loss for the Heels than Duke seeing a 45-game win streak at Cameron fall to the wayside. 

North Carolina was a heavy -165 favorite to win the ACC this past October, with Duke next in line at +275.  Meanwhile, there are some potentially fortunate gamblers who have to like their chances holding NCAA basketball odds vouchers on Florida State (7/1), Virginia (16/1) and North Carolina State (20/1).  The Seminoles and Wolfpack are the other two teams tied with the Blue Devils atop the ACC, and the 2-2 Cavaliers are very live dogs if they can get any offense going with that incredible defense. 

Duke haters will hate this, but the road to the ACC regular season crown really does go through Durham from a schedule standpoint.  And that schedule begins Wednesday night at Maryland as an 11 point favorite against the Terrapins.  Scoreboard bettors will be fixated on a 151 point total. 

In addition to the two games still left against UNC, Mike Krzyzewski's outfit has road games at Virginia Tech and Florida State, plus a home game against NC State in mid-February that is the only meeting of the regular season between those triangle rivals.  Every team gets up for Duke, so potential slips include just about each game on the Blue Devils calendar. 

Hate to give away the ending, but I think the Terps sort of play right into the hands of a Duke team looking to take out its frustrations.  Maryland is so dependent upon just one star on the offensive end, Terrell Stoglin.  The Blue Devils aren't a great defensive team, but they are a far more balanced offensive squad than Maryland's defense can shut down. 

That will be especially true if the Terps' one real big body in the middle can't go or is less than 100%.  Alex Len is a question mark on the injury list with a bad ankle, and though Maryland head coach Mark Turgeon expects his 7-1 Ukrainian to play, even at 100% he will be overmatched by the likes of Duke's Ryan Kelly and the Plumlee Brothers, Miles and Mason. 

This series has belonged to Duke who holds a 110-61 all-time record vs. Maryland.  The Blue Devils have taken nine of the last 10, covering the college basketball lines in six of those with one push.  The Dookies swept the three meetings a year, including the matchup in the ACC tourney, covering the spread in two of the three. 

The Blue Devils haven't lost back-to-back games in nearly three years, dropping consecutive contests to UNC and Boston College in mid-February 2009.  Since then, Duke is a perfect 13-0 following a defeat. 

Taking A Chance: Asking Duke to cover an inflated spread is always risky business, and that has been especially true the past few weeks.  The Blue Devils are just 1-5 ATS in that span, a run that started with the 78-73 upset loss to Temple on Jan. 4.  What has been money in their games is the OVER, 4-1-1 during the same 6-game span.  But betting the high side of the total smacks in the face of series trends between Duke and Maryland, as seven of the last nine stayed UNDER.

Turgeon is going to want to make a good impression coaching against Krzyzewski in a conference encounter for the first time.  The Terps have also played a little better defense at home, though this will be the best offense they have faced since possibly Iona way back before Thanksgiving.  I'm going to bite the bullet and lay the points on Duke, and also will try my luck on the UNDER 151. My pick is Duke, 79-67.