Florida vs. Kentucky: NCAA Basketball Picks

Let's not pussyfoot around and instead dive right into the guts of this beast. Two things have to happen for the Florida Gators to grab the outright upset over the Kentucky Wildcats on Tuesday night: 

1) UK's interior defense has a very poor game, and; 

2) Florida shoots 40% or better from 3 point range. 

The first of at least two meetings (and potentially 3-4 matchups) between the Cats and Gators highlights a very short college hoops card for the third consecutive day. History tells us this has been a one-sided series, especially in Lexington, and it would be a huge upset for Billy Donovan and Florida even as the No. 7/8 team in the country. 

That's primarily due to Kentucky having such an incredibly talented squad. The pollsters agree with that, not to mention the college basketball betting lines for this clash, after the Wildcats opened -10 before sports betting action pushed the line down to -9.5 immediately. 

The initial line movement is understandable. Giving a top 10 team double digits, even on the road against a higher-ranked club, is either too many based on the predicted public handle expected, or a sign there's an incredible drop-off in talent between teams one might think of as No. 1 and No. 3 seeds to start March Madness about five weeks from now. Count me among those initially inclined to believe the former.

One might think my initial stipulations for this contest's outcome are exclusive and not connected to each other, but they are. Florida can shoot well from beyond the arc and still not win this game. The Gators might cover the NCAA Basketball odds  if they do, but they won't win it without Kentucky's interior defense breaking down. That doesn't just mean rebounding, as Wildcats freshman Anthony Davis is continuing his assault on the record books in the blocks column. 

Davis earned his fourth SEC player of the week award this past week after averaging 20 points and 7.5 blocks in wins (and covers) over South Carolina and Tennessee. 

Kentucky's defense will also need to shut off open lanes, and the unit has proven all season it can do just that. We talked about how good Kentucky's defense was early on their SEC schedule, and it really hasn't changed much since. John Calipari simply has the best overall defense in the country. Forget Wisconsin; so long Ohio State and, with all due respect, goodbye Virginia. The Wildcats have the best and most consistent 'D' in the land.

If there is one concern, it's this will be the best overall offense Kentucky has faced since hosting North Carolina back in early December. As NCAAB bettors will recall, the Wildcats failed to cover a 6.5 point spread and needed a Davis rejection at the end to eke out a 73-72 over the Heels. That game was won by UK on the inside, as that final block proved. North Carolina was deadly from outside, hitting 11 of 18 from 3 point land. 

Florida has rebounded very nicely from its conference opener at Tennessee, a 67-56 loss on Jan. 7. That was undoubtedly the worst overall performance this season by the Gators; if the Vols could have hit free throws, they'd have won by 20. Five of the seven wins since then have come at home, and Florida is just 1-3 ATS on the SEC highway. 

Kentucky, meanwhile, has bounced back from a very ugly stretch against the spread, covering the last four and five of the previous six following a 1-13 ATS string.

Last season's game between the two clubs at Rupp pushed the 8 point line in Kentucky's 76-68 victory. It's been about five years since Florida last won on this floor, the Wildcats winning the last four and the spread splitting in those games.

Taking a Chance: Opening NCAA basketball odds made the total 142, and these are indeed the top two shooting clubs the SEC has had to offer this season. Barring overtime, I don't see that figure reached. My NCAA Basketball pick is to take Florida and the 9.5 to 10 points, and the UNDER. Kentucky wins it, 74-65.