Harvard at UConn: NCAA Basketball Picks

But then, this isn't your normal Harvard team with a top 25 ranking for the first time in school history.  Heck, it's not really close to any team out of the Ivy League in decades, if ever, that Tommy Amaker has put together. 

The Crimson will try and pull off the mild upset Thursday night when they travel to Storrs to take on the Huskies.  ESPN will broadcast from Gampel Pavilion with the tip-off coming a little past 7 PM (ET).  And yes, it would only be an upset of mild proportions though you can bet the talking heads and general public would have you believe it was a shock on a much grander scale. 

NCAA basketball odds released Wednesday afternoon installed UConn -6.5 with 129.5 for the total.  Expect that spread to grow by at least a point before the opening jump ball. 

Fans and bettors alike came pretty close to having already seen this game a couple of weeks ago when Harvard and UConn were taking part in the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament in the Bahamas over Thanksgiving.  That tourney was initially set up for Connecticut and Florida State to meet in the finals, but the Huskies were upset in the semifinals against Central Florida.  About two hours later, Harvard knocked off the Seminoles in the other semifinal matchup, then went on to win the championship the following evening over UCF. 

Amaker really has done wonders in developing a very competitive program within Harvard's academic requirements.  He's also got the luxury of his top 6 players in terms of minutes and scoring back from a year ago, a very rare double-double in college basketball these days.  If there's a star on the team, it's senior Keith Wright who has been about as steady as steady goes the past two seasons leading the team in scoring and rebounding. 

The talent gap between the teams isn't as big as you might think, and the Crimson make up for any shortfall there with a very deep rotation and a quick, pressure defense.  The defense was a little lacking in giving up 70 last time out to Seattle, a big look-ahead spot to this matchup.  Harvard held Utah, Florida State and Central Florida to under 46 a game during the Atlantis tournament, about 20 below each team's current season average. 

Amaker's squad will up against a much better offensive team in the Huskies than any of those other three, however.  That loss to Central Florida remains the only defeat on the ledger of Jim Calhoun's crew who sits 7-1, but just 2-3 against the spread. The Huskies bounced right back from that setback to just nip the 'Noles in the Bahamas consolation contest, and most recently dispatched Arkansas by a 75-62 count last Saturday.  Both wins were half-point covers. 

Obviously, UConn is in title defense mode after winning it all this past March and trying to find a new leader following Kemba Walker's departure.  The good news is a very strong group outside Walker returned, led by Jeremy Wright (20.3 PPG).  Shabazz Napier has been outstanding directing the attack from the point, and is scoring almost 17 a game. 

Alex Oriakhi has not been up to snuff so far for the Huskies, but could be in for a break-out night in this game. Oriakhi has been losing minutes to a couple of freshmen recently, Andre Drummond and DeAndre Daniels. 

Another frosh was a big reason why UConn fell to Central Florida with Ryan Boatright missing that day.  Boatright was suspended the first six games for an NCAA violation regarding improper gifts, and the lean 18 year old has hit the floor running since serving the time off.  He scored 14 in the win over Florida State and had 23 in the victory over the Razorbacks. 

This will be the third-straight season the two schools have hooked up for some hoops, all of the games played on UConn's floor.  The Huskies have won both previous encounters, including last December's 81-52 wipeout as 12.5 point chalk.  Connecticut was laying 18.5 about 12 months before that, and the Crimson easily stayed within that spread in a 79-73 loss. 

Taking a Chance: The spread is far too sharp for such a square as yours truly.  That's not to imply that squares can't occasionally have sharp moments, and my crispest bills will be placed on UConn -6.5.  I'd love to see the outright upset as much as the next guy, gal, tranny, mid-surgical crossover or whatever the hell JJ Gold is.  Huskies take this, 71-56.