Kentucky at Auburn: NCAA Basketball Picks

One of those contests finds the very talented, and very young, Kentucky Wildcats traveling to Auburn for an SEC clash with the Tigers (8 PM ET, ESPN3). 

Several intriguing NCAA basketball betting trends and streaks will collide when the two teams hit the floor at Auburn Arena, but before we get into those, let's start with the numbers for this specific matchup.  John Calipari's Cats opened as 16-point favorites on the overnight NCAA basketball odds, with 133 for the scoreboard hurdle.  Both figures have since moved up to Kentucky -17.5 and 135.5 for the total. 

As the road chalk on Kentucky indicates, it's a mismatch on paper, on the floor and certainly in the public's eye.  Anyone can glance at each team's page over at ESPN and see a bunch of one and two digit figures for where the Wildcats rank nationally in statistical categories, while the Tigers are in the 100's and 200's of the same categories.  Those same pages also show Auburn coming off two ugly road losses in which Tony Barbee's bunch scored just 91 points combined in setbacks to Florida State and Vanderbilt. Meanwhile, Kentucky is on a 7-game winning run since its only loss of the season, and averaging more than 80 points per game in that stretch. 

Calipari keeps reloading with top talent on the floor, and this year's group is arguably the most talented team in the nation despite four freshmen and two sophomores among the top seven on the team in minutes played.  The scoring is spread around so well, it makes it impossible for any other team to concentrate on just one or two primary stars. 

Six players are averaging double digits, led by soph Doron Lamb's 14.6.  Like many teams Kentucky comes up against, Auburn won't have any single player to put on 6-10 freshman Anthony Davis who is working on a string of five double-double's and has nine in the Wildcats' first 16 games. 

Putting it simply and bluntly, there are no weakness on this UK squad.  The Cats are solid in the backcourt, frontcourt, they run well, distribute the ball as good if not better than any team in the country, protect the ball and in what might be their most underrated facet of the game, play solid defense. 

About the only thing going for the Tigers is their gym will be packed and Barbee's group isn't entirely shabby itself on the defensive end.  An outright upset will depend on dictating a very slow pace the entire evening and hitting shots at a far better rate than we've seen when Auburn has faced any decent talent thus far. 

Outright upsets are indeed rare for the Tigers in this series.  Kentucky has won the last 12 and stands 85-17 all-time.  The one good number there is Auburn is a more respectable 13-27 when playing at home, if a .325 win percentage can be called respectable. 

The best reason for bettors to play Auburn is the Tigers have covered each of the last three skirmishes.  They'll also be playing a Kentucky team that has been an absolute drain against the spread this season.  The Wildcats jumped out to a 3-0 ATS record, but have since gone 1-11 for their spread backers.  Even that one win is iffy, depending on when you may have gotten down on their Dec. 22 clash with Loyola-Maryland. 

Then again, Auburn hasn't exactly been making friends on the betting front either, starting with the fact a ridiculously easy schedule has resulted in just eight lined games.  The Tigers have beaten the number in just two of those, and dropped cash the last five games that made the board. 

One other bit of good news for bettors is a strong UNDER trend in recent battles between Kentucky and Auburn, with each of the last four finishing below the tally.  The Wildcats are 6-8 O/U to this point and the Tigers split 4-4. 

Taking a Chance: Calipari has a date in Knoxville against Tennessee this Saturday, and while the Vols aren't a huge threat, it's still a rivalry matchup and more dangerous for a Kentucky misstep.  Laying 17.5 on the Cats is also scary since this is their first conference road game, and first trip away from Rupp Arena since that loss to the Hoosiers. Let's ride that total trend in the series, especially with Auburn so cold offensively.  My NCAA basketball pick is UNDER 133.