There's a big difference in the traffic offshore and in Vegas come March Madness, with Sin City drawing far more walk-in squares while offshore sites have a sharper base.
The brackets are filled, and college basketball insanity is peaking as bosses across the U.S. plan for an ebb in worker productivity on Thursday and Friday when the first two rounds of the NCAA tournament get under way.
I got to chat briefly with the Head Linesman from mid-sized Las Palmas, and with Bobby Sharp, renowned Head Linesman from Legendz, to get their perspectives on the current state of affairs of their operations at tourney time. I got some candid answers on the goings on behind the offshore scenes for this year’s March Madness.
SBR: In Vegas, the sportsbooks typically have a much higher hold percentage on college basketball in March than at other times in the basketball season. It's been about 40% higher the last three years, a remarkable consistency. For our readers who might not know, "hold percentage" refers to the percentage of the total money wagered that the book "wins" or gets to keep; in other words. Do you find that to be the case at the online books as well?
Las Palmas: Yes I do see an increase in hold percentage come tournament time.
Legendz: Well, yes but not as much as that 40% figure. They get a lot of walk-in tourist business, where we (offshore) have our usual sharper base mixed in with the public. We do have new signups in March, but not shall we say, the drunken foot traffic of Vegas.
SBR: Ah yes, the famous drunken Vegas tournament foot traffic. I had a feeling it wasn’t that sharp.
Las Palmas: There’s definitely an increase in square action as opposed to the regular season. The recreational players get stirred into action.
SBR: But the online players are sharper.
Legendz: Absolutely sharper.
SBR: What kind of handle are you seeing so far, and what kind are you expecting? As I'm sure you know, the handle on this year’s Super Bowl actually declined very slightly in Nevada for the second year in a row, despite expectations that it would break the record for Super Bowl wagering. Do you think this year's March Madness handle will be lower as well?
Las Palmas: Yes, I do feel like this year's Madness handle will be lower but I also feel like overall this was a pretty tough year for the industry. I think it’s the worst I've seen in my eight years. We've seen the BOS and Neteller issues and many books getting scared out of the U.S. market. It’s not easy, especially for smaller offices.
Legendz: Super Bowl handle also declined because on paper it was not a real attractive game point spread-wise. And there is an economy right now going on, not to get political,
SBR: No, get political.
Legendz: Well, an economy that isn’t conducive to running off to Vegas like you had in the past. March Madness offshore though, I don’t expect to be any different from last year. It will be busy and I assume profitable.
SBR: Interesting. So offshore seems insulated a little, at least, from economic downturns because it doesn’t benefit as much as Vegas does from the excess cash caused by economic booms?
Legendz: Yes, possibly.
SBR: Moving on to the basketball lines, some interesting stuff seems to be going on I’d like to get your take on. For a while a few years back in the opening round of the NCAA tournaments, it seemed like blindly betting underdogs was a good thing to do. The underdogs would often get hit with early money, the lines would go down, but they would still tend to cover at a good clip. But last year everything changed. The books seemed to adjust, the lines in general seemed more moderate, they didn't move as much, and the faves actually then wound up covering at a 21-10-1 clip in 2007. I'm seeing the same kind of thing this year. Only Cal-State Fullerton has seen a major line movement so far, going from +15 to +11, and my sense is that in the past you used to see a lot more early movement like that. Has the thought process behind setting and moving the lines for the opening rounds consciously changed?
Las Palmas: It would make sense that the thought process changed, for sure. I think that the basic methods of lines making for these games didn't change but there have to be adjustments constantly, it’s the nature of the business.
Trends and teams are changing all the time. I like to think of these fluctuations as waves, sometimes when they're at their peak they're beautiful and powerful and that’s the right time to jump on and enjoy the ride. They only last for so long then they crash and you have to wait for another. It’s just a matter of being able to ID it before the other guy.
Legendz: Yes I think the lines did get slightly sharper. There are not as many juicy games for the early movers as there used to be. Also, the Billy Walters types like to wait until all places have their lines to bet.
SBR: Who sets your March Madness lines? Do you make them yourself, or do you confer with anyone on them?
Legendz: Well, same as most anyone, we let CRIS be the guinea pig, let the lines settle, and then open them up an hour later or even the next day. Unless you want that business then you open them as they are. It isn’t cost effective to hire your own linesmaker or to do it yourself. I may have most of the games right but I’m only going to get bet the games I made a mistake on. So I let the lines settle a bit then I open with an opinion on some games and set the rest with generic lines.
Las Palmas: I and the other gentlemen on the stage set the lines, but we don't make them ourselves though I am capable of doing so. Right now, for the most part everybody confers with CRIS to be honest. In the past we have had a linesmaker and I'm sure that between 1999 to maybe 2003 when the industry was booming many shops probably had their own lines makers. I'm really not sure about that though, and moreover I remember being introduced to LVSC back then which probably made lines for many.
But these days I think only a few books have their own oddsmakers. My guess would be CRIS, TheGreek, and Pinnacle, that’s it. The smaller guys, ourselves included, may be thinking that it’s not necessary with all the info out there for free.
SBR: Do you get pelted with frenzied early action as soon as you post your lines? Based on the way the lines move, I would guess that you do.
Legendz: Yes I think we all do to a point, but you limit this play until things settle down, and then let them fire away if they want to.
Las Palmas: No we actually don't, and for two reasons. One, we're a pretty small shop and two, we have only a handful of sharp players. I would think that the guys that are "hammering these opening numbers into shape" are professionals who are either scalping or getting the best of a number that by their standards is "wrong." These guys want higher limits also, so they'd want to play at the bigger shops with higher limits and early lines.
SBR: How has the early action this year compared to other years? Are you seeing more or less of one kind of bet?
Legendz: It is slower than last year right now. It could be because lines are slightly tighter.
Las Palmas: I'm seeing fewer parlays I think. I say "I think" because I didn't run any reports, I'm just basing this on what I see. Fewer parlays tell me that players are becoming less and less square and that scares me and it should scare anybody that’s on this end in my opinion, but who knows maybe it’s just another trend.
SBR: What are the biggest bets you've taken so far? Have any of your sharp players made any big notable bets on the first round?
Las Palmas: Biggest bets, hmmm. All our sharp players are flagged and limited. We do have big players that are not in the sharp category however. There are maybe 10 active guys that are allowed up to 15K on hoops, some can get more. But to answer your question the biggest so far I think is 10K.
Legendz: I have two guys I won’t name but you would know them that have bet me on the Fullerton game and on San Diego. But who knows they could reverse at any time.
SBR: Fullerton and San Diego, got it. Ok, thank you so much for your illuminating responses.
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