Louisville -4.5 over UConn: NCAA Basketball Picks

One might think the Connecticut Huskies had won another national championship reading some of the accounts from their victory over Seton Hall this past Saturday. 

Yes, the Huskies scored a convincing 69-46 triumph vs. the Pirates to easily cover the 8 point spread. There was also the feel-good story angle of the team snapping a four game losing streak while its coach is away on indefinite medical leave. 

It was indeed a nice win for UConn, but the real test to determine if the defending champs are legitimate players in the Big East will come this week when the Huskies hit the road for a pair of conference clashes. First up on Monday is a rematch of last year's Big East Tournament Finals with Connecticut visiting the Louisville Cardinals. That is followed by a Saturday challenge at Syracuse. 

Opening NCAA basketball betting numbers made the Cardinals 4.5 point favorites with the total at 128 or 128.5, depending which sports betting shop you use. 

We're just past the halfway point on conference schedules, and it has already been a very strange season in the Big East. One year after sending a record 11 teams to the NCAA Tournament, Syracuse is the only crew playing with much consistency and the league could be looking at receiving just 7-8 invites to this March's dance at the most. Georgetown, Marquette and Louisville are the only three other than the Orange, who would appear to be a cinch right now to get into the field of 68. 

Connecticut head coach Jim Calhoun, who is away from the team with what has been diagnosed as spinal stenosis, was undoubtedly happy his team got back into the win column against Seton Hall. Still, he knows the "W" came at the expense of a reeling Pirates team that dropped their sixth straight. Lest we forget, Seton Hall was being talked up just over a month ago after upsetting UConn 75-63 as 3.5 point home dogs. That had many thinking the Pirates were going to be players in the Big East, but they have since proven to be nothing more than pretenders. 

Some will point out that UConn's defense limited the Pirates to just 25.9% shooting from the field while dominating the glass with a 40-29 rebound margin. Just how much credit the Huskies deserve for that is questionable, however, since Seton Hall is a poor shooting club to begin with and was playing without star Herb Pope.

His own team's shooting woes have to be a bigger concern for Calhoun and assistant George Blaney who will once again be in charge Monday evening in Louisville. A big part of the offensive trouble can be directly traced to Shabazz Napier. The sophomore guard, second on the team averaging 13.6 PPG, has totaled just 11 points the last three games, and nine of those came from the charity stripe. Napier has found the net just once in his last 22 attempts from the field, missing all nine 3 point tries.  

Meanwhile, Rick Pitino and the Cardinals have slowly been digging themselves out of an early conference hole. Louisville got off to a 2-4 start in the Big East standings before winning its last four, the most recent a 78-66 triumph Saturday at home while giving up 11 on the NCAA basketball odds to Rutgers. 'Ville won that game at the free throw line with a big 32-9 free throw attempt differential over the Scarlet Knights. 

Though Saturday's victory was the Cards' fifth in their last six contests, as well as the fifth pointspread win in that span, Louisville still isn't operating on all cylinders. Scoring is up slightly during the current win streak, but the Cardinals are still struggling to hit from outside the arc and turning the ball over far too often. They rank in the bottom 20% of the country in both 3-point shooting and turnovers. The past two games have seen the Cards cough it up 41 times.

Louisville had won and covered four consecutive regular season matchups with UConn before the two met last March in the Big East Championship. Thanks to 19 points from Kemba Walker and a 20-7 scoring advantage at the free throw line, the Huskies came away 69-66 winners in a game that closed Louisville -3.

Taking a Chance: There isn't a single overwhelming reason to back or fade either team, but SBR didn't ask me to provide a bunch of stats or analysis for the matchup and then leave you hanging with a 'no play' cop out. I'm simply not as impressed with UConn's 23-point win this past Saturday as others seem to be, so let's ride Louisville's win streak one more game. My NCAA Basketball pick is Cardinals -4.5.