Michigan State vs. Illinois: NCAA Basketball Pick

Sportsbooks opened Michigan State as a 3 ½-point favorite, with early sports betting action on Illinois dropping the number to three at some shops. NCAA Basketball odds makers first set the ‘total’ at 128 ½, remaining unchanged after mixed initial wagers.

Green, Spartans cruise at home 

Michigan State’s latest win came in Wednesday’s 68-52 triumph as nine-point home ‘chalk’ against the Minnesota Golden Gophers. The Spartans connected 54.2 percent of their field buckets, while holding Minnesota to 38.3 percent.

Spartans forward Draymond Green logged his third double-double in six games, finishing with team-highs of 22 points and 14 rebounds. Green’s mate Branden Dawson notched 16 points, while adding four of his squad’s eight blocks.

The battle’s combined 120 points dipped below the ‘total’ of 135, making the ‘under’ 2-1 in the Spartans’ last three contests. The Spartans struggled from the charity stripe and three-point line, shooting 14-of-23 and 2-of-11 from those spots, respectively. 

Illini edged out in overtime 

Illinois logged its third straight loss in Saturday’s 77-72 setback as a 4 ½-point road dog, defeated in overtime at Minnesota. The Fighting Illini were held to 40.3 percent field shooting, including a meager 3-for-21 night beyond the arc. 

Illini guard Brandon Paul piled in 28 points, while adding nine boards and three blocks. Paul’s mate Meyers Leonard notched 17 points and a team-high 13 boards, recording his second straight double-double. 

The close contest’s combined 149 points jumped above the ‘total’ of 126 ½, lifting the ‘over’ to 3-1 in Illinois’ last four games. Leonard was called for a costly foul with five seconds left in regulation, allowing Minnesota’s Austin Hollins to sink a game-tying free throw after connecting a clutch layup. 

Back the Illini as home dogs 

Tuesday’s tip is scheduled for 7 p.m. (ET), with ESPN providing the national television coverage.

I am backing Illinois with my NCAA basketball picks, taking the points in this home-dog spot. The Fighting Illini have notched a pair of home wins against ranked foes this year, including this month’s 79-74 triumph as an 8 ½-point underdog against No. 5 Ohio State.

Illinois’ Leonard ranks third in the Big Ten for rebounds (8 RPG), making the sophomore not far behind Green (10.4 RPG). Leonard also leads the conference in blocks (2 BPG), while mate Joseph Bertrand is third-best in field shooting (59.8 percent). 

The Illini have put up 71.5 PPG at home, while holding visitors to a stingy 59.2 PPG. Illinois has cashed at 7-3 ATS in its last 10 home meetings against the Spartans, while the underdog has collected at 4-1-1 in the last six matchups between the foes. 

Illinois defeated Michigan State, 71-62, in last January’s duel at Assembly Hall. Paul notched a team-high 20 points for the Illini, hitting 7-of-11 from the field. Green was held to a 5-for-14 night from the floor for Michigan State, who allowed Illinois to drain 8-of-17 buckets from three-point land.