NCAA Basketball Pick: Missouri, Oklahoma stays ‘under’ Monday

There could be a lower scoring game than expected in store in the Big 12 Monday night when the Missouri Tigers (21-2 overall, 4-2 away) pay a visit to the Oklahoma Sooners (13-9 overall, 9-3 home) at the Lloyd Noble Center in Norman, OK at 7:00 ET in a game televised nationally on ESPNU.

Now Missouri is the fourth ranked team in the country in the polls and it is ranked seventh overall on the Pomeroy Ratings. The Tigers also lead the nation in offensive efficiency, but remember that they slipped up and lost to an inferior team at Oklahoma State immediately after a big win at Baylor. Well, this is another obvious letdown spot for Missouri after rallying late to beat Kansas on Saturday, so the offense may not be as crisp as usual.

Still, we are talking about one of the very best teams in the country here as the Tigers gave only one other blemish on their record at Kansas State, so we would not be confident playing against them here just because of the letdown factor. However we do feel that a rather lethargic effort makes the ‘under’ a great play against the NCAA Basketball odds in this spot.

Missouri won the first meeting between these teams in Columbia 87-49 this season, and that total of 136 with Missouri playing at its best would have easily cashed this ‘under’ ticket. Well, you may be able to shave 10 points off of the Tigers’ output in that game tonight and Oklahoma may not be good enough to raise its total too much, especially since its best chance at an upset here may be to slow the pace down.

The posted total at 5 Dimes is 145½ for this contest with the current odds on the ‘under’ set at -110.

Now we get that Missouri ranks second in the country in effective field goal percentage while leading the world in two-point shooting at a remarkable 56.5 percent and also ranking 38th in three-point shooing at an excellent 38.2 percent. This is also a unique lineup that uses four guards, creating matchup nightmares for the opposition, and the Tigers do not turn the ball over with all those ball-handlers, ranking fourth in the land in turnover percentage.

That is how a team averages 80.9 points per game while ranking just 105th with a tempo rating of 67.9 possessions per game. The caveat is that on the rare nights when Missouri’s shooting is a bit off, it does not get many second chances, ranking only 183rd in offensive rebounding percentage with its small lineup. Well, the shooting could be off a bit tonight, especially in the first half, after having just one day off since probably the biggest win of the year vs. the Jayhawks.

Now Oklahoma is 9-3 straight up at home this season, but remember that the Sooners faced a weak non-conference schedule ranked just 296th in SOS by Pomeroy, and their three home losses came vs. the three best teams that they have faced here in Baylor, Kansas and Iowa State, with that latter loss to the Cyclones just coming on Saturday.

The Sooners rank only 250th in the country in two-point offense at 45.6 percent, although they do rank a good 57th in three-point shooting. Even there though, their 37.2 percent success rate from beyond the arc is a full percentage point lower than Missouri.

Perhaps most importantly in regards to this total that knowing they are nowhere close to Missouri talent wise, the Sooners may try to shorten the game by slowing the pace to give themselves the best chance at an upset. They have been good at slowing the pace all year, ranking 166th with a tempo rating of 66.8 possessions per game.

Thus, look for a rather safe ‘under’ on ESPNU Monday night.