NCAA Basketball Pick: Murray State vs. Morehead State

Raise your hand if before the season started you thought the only top 10 team playing on January 18th would be the Murray State Racers. Get 'em up there. All you gotta' do is lift an arm and sort of wave. Anyone? 

Steve Prohm and the Racers are the toast of college basketball, the torch basically passing from Butler to Murray State as this year's top mid-major. Our new David in a land of Goliaths reached the No. 10 slot in the latest Coaches Poll, two spots higher than AP voters who wouldn't recognize a great story in sports if it jumped up and bit them on the butts. 

The story either continues or ends with a proverbial bump on the road when Murray State visits the Morehead State Eagles on this 18th day of January, 2012 on the Western Calendar and the very cusp before a Year of the Dragon somewhere around 4700 according to the Chinese. The Racers are on the road for two this week against a pair of middling teams in the Ohio Valley Conference standings. Up first is Donnie Tyndall's Eagles who present a potential banana peel for Murray's State's 18-0 record. 

The 7 PM (ET) tip will be broadcast from Ellis T Johnson Arena in Morehead, KY by ESPN3. Sportsbooks initially made the Racers 9.5 point favorites with 128 for the total. 

Granted, tracking Murray State has become something like watching the little engine that could chug along for a while even though a train wreck is surely coming. Those following NCAA Basketball odds the past couple of weeks have sniffed out possible early signs of trouble with the Racers dropping three of their last four against the spread, all three as double-digit home favorites. 

Some of that can obviously be attributed to pressure building to keep the perfect record alive, and some is due to the NCAA basketball betting lines starting to widen on the Racers when they are at home. On the road, where the spreads have been shorter, Murray State is 6-2 vs. the sports betting number and has covered the last four played away from home or at neutral sites, the last three as chalk in the 4.5 to 22 point range. 

The Racers have also been without one of their best players the past few games. Ivan Aska, the team's leading rebounder (6.0 per game) and third-leading scorer (12.6 PPG), is still nursing a hand injury and the senior forward is expected to miss Wednesday's tilt and beyond. 

Guard Isaiah Canaan has stepped up his game a bit with Aska out the past four games, averaging over 21 points per night in that span. He had one cold snap from way outside, but is one of the best in the country shooting the three with a 48.6% success rate. 

If there's good news for this game, its that Murray State might not need Aska's presence on the inside as much to help on the glass, as Morehead State is a pretty poor rebounding team and struggling to consistently put points on the board. The bad news is that this series has played in favor of the home team each of the past two seasons, each crew winning and covering on their own floors. 

Morehead State simply doesn't like anyone coming to its court and thinking they will leave with a victory. The Eagles are 31-3 at home since early in the 2009-10 campaign, though two of those defeats did come this season with back-to-back setbacks in early December. 

A key player for Tyndall and the Eagles could be Drew Kelly. The 6-7 soph was a one-man show in Morehead State's 57-54 win over Eastern Kentucky last Saturday when he netted a career-best 26. That was his second 20-point effort in the last four games and Kelly could be on the verge of assuming and, more importantly, handling a greater offensive load. 

Taking a Chance: You might not think this is as big of a Bluegrass State rivalry as Kentucky vs. Louisville, but this is just as big a game to Racers and Eagles fans. The gym in Morehead should be packed and electric, and the team that is relaxed to begin with will have the edge in the win column, outright and ATS. One more stat to throw your way is both sides are very good free-throw shooters, and an off night for Murray State among a hostile crowd would be a death sentence for the Racers, especially without Aska's added punch..

Both games last year went OVER totals in the 121-125 range, but the teams have been small UNDER winners this season with Murray State 6-8 O/U and Morehead State 6-10. The spread may move higher, but I think it's more likely to shrink. I'll take the 9.5 overnight on the Eagles and the UNDER, stopping short of an upset with my pick. Racers win it, 64-60.