The Baylor Bears remain undefeated on the season, but the Kansas State Wildcats hope to change that tonight as the two collide in a Big 12 showdown. While the Wildcats have the slight edge in the odds, should we bet on a upset?
Welcome to The Little Apple, otherwise known as Manhattan, Kansas. Among the sites to see in town are the oldest
Pizza Hut in the world, the former home of writer Damon Runyon and Bramlage
Coliseum, which is otherwise known as a little shop of horrors for visiting
college basketball teams.
Bramlage Coliseum was indeed a scary place for the Missouri
Tigers this past Saturday when Kansas
State posted a 75-59 win,
holding Frank Haith's club to a season low on the scoreboard in handing the
Tigers their first loss of the season. Frank Martin's Wildcats now look to repeat that showing and put the
first notch in the loss column of the Baylor Bears when the Big 12 foes collide
Tuesday night (8 PM ET).
The game will be sent out to the masses on ESPN3, and early NCAA Basketball odds call for a closely contested match with K-State slight
2-point favorites and a total of 128 for the scoreboard number. It looks like a slew of NCAA basketball picks have been placed on this game, and bettors have driven the total up to 133.5 as most NCAA basketball betting shops.
Are NCAA basketball bettors right with their picks on the total, or is the smart sports betting choice to focus on this game's spread? Lets break down this matchup and decide where we have the best chance of cashing in.
Kansas State has reeled off a 23-1 record inside Bramlage
Coliseum since the start of the 2010-11 season, the only loss coming almost
exactly a year ago when a hot-shooting Colorado pinned a 74-66 defeat on the
Wildcats who were laying 10 in that game.
Missouri
didn't have the same luck, committing three early turnovers to set the tone for
the game and hitting just 16 of 49 (32.7%) on the afternoon. The Tigers entered
the contest putting up over 86 points per game and hitting over 51% of their
field goals, each second in the nation before the defeat. The Wildcats, who
rose to No. 18 in both polls with the win, made the Tigers pay for their
miscues by scoring 21 points off 14 Missouri
turnovers.
They'll be facing another strong offensive club in No. 4 Baylor who remains one of just three
unbeaten teams along with top-ranked Syracuse
and Murray State. Though not quite as prolific in the scoring department as Missouri, the Bears are
still a very efficient club on the offensive end. Baylor has also dealt with several solid
defensive teams already, beating Saint Mary's, West
Virginia and Missouri
State along the way.
If there's a concern for the Bears, other than just playing
in a hostile environment at KSU, it's a propensity for turning the ball
over. Scott Drew's crew is averaging 15 giveaways
per game, second most among Big 12 squads, but a stingy defense has helped make
up for that with the Bears allowing just 58.4 PPG. That's among the top 25 schools in the nation
and second-fewest only to Texas A&M in the conference.
One advantage Drew and the Bears have to counter being on the
road is height, and they'll need to really use that to keep K-State off the
offensive glass. Perry Jones III and
Quincy Acy, the top two scorers and rebounders for Baylor, are going to
primarily be the responsibility of the Wildcats' Jordan Henriquez and Jamar
Samuels, and that duo is going to need some help to keep Kansas State
in this game.
The previous alignment in the Big 12 made for just one
regular season meeting between these two on the schedule, something that
changes this year with Kansas
State returning the visit
to Baylor on Feb. 18. The Wildcats have
won and covered the past three meetings, each time as the favorite and
including a 2010 postseason conference tournament matchup. Kansas
State was a 6-point
favorite last January on this floor in a 69-61 victory.
Baylor's last win here in Manhattan came in January 2009, an 83-65
upset as 3.5 point underdogs.
Taking a Chance: 'Letdown
spot' will be two words tossed around for Kansas State
in this game, but that's really not the correct way to look at this one. I'm focusing more on Baylor being the third-consecutive
highly ranked opponent for the Wildcats. The Bears have been underdogs just
twice this season, and won both of those games on the road at Northwestern and
BYU. Kansas State is tougher than either of those,
but my pick is take Baylor and the bucket that oddsmakers are giving.
The Bears win a close one, 67-64.