Points will be a premium tonight when No. 18 Virginia hosts Clemson in a battle of the top two scoring defenses in the ACC. Game time is 7:00 PM ET on ESPN2 at John Paul Jones Arena, Charlottesville, Virginia.
Sportsbooks opened with the Cavaliers as -8.5 point favorites
with the total at 107.5. Early sports betting has lowered the spread to 7.5, while the total has lifted the total to 109.5 in this matchup.
Lets find out if these numbers are moving in our favor or if we need to jump on them now to get the best value with our NCAA basketball picks.
Virginia (17-3 SU, 10-5 ATS) leads the ACC in scoring defense (50.6) points per game, while Clemson
is yielding only 59.7 points a game, second in the conference. Opponents are
shooting just 38.8 percent from the field against Virginia which has led to a
13.7 margin of victory for the
Cavaliers. Virginia is 10-1 at home (3-4 ATS) and are off to their best
start since going 27-3 to open the 1982-83 season. All three of Virginia’s losses
this season have been by a single possession, and in two of the games the
Cavaliers had the final shot to win or tie
The Cavs are coming
off a 61-60 victory at NC State on Saturday. Mike Scott scored 18 points to
lead UV, the fifth time in six ACC games he has scored at least 18 points.
Clemson (11-9 SU, 4-11 ATS) comes into the game having won
two straight conference games to even its league record at 3-3 on the season.
The Tigers defeated Georgia Tech and Wake Forest at home on consecutive
weekends. Clemson is 2-4 on the road (3-5 ATS including neutral court games).
Opponents are
shooting only 41.9 percent from the field against the Tigers and Clemson has
produced 297 turnovers this season. Offensively the Tigers have increased their
scoring offense during conference play.
Through six games, they’re averaging 68.3 points per game, nearly five
points higher than their average during the non-conference portion of the
schedule.
CU is 3-1 at home
in ACC play, but is just 0-2 on the road. The Tigers have lost by a combined
five points to Boston College and Miami. Historically, the Tigers have struggled
on the road in the ACC going 75-324 in conference road games, a winning
percentage of 18.
Coaches
Head Coach Brad
Brownell won his 200th career game with the victory over the Deacons on
Saturday. He’s in his second
season at Clemson after successful stints at UNC Wilmington and Wright State.
Last year, he led the Tigers to their first NCAA Tournament win since the Rick
Barnes era but saw his team fall in the first-round. He has a record of 200-106
in his 10 seasons as a head coach at the Division I level.
Tony Bennett is in
his sixth season as a D-1 head coach and third with Virginia. He’s 117-67
overall and 48-34 as the Cavs boss. He spent three years at Washington State where he compiled a 69-33-3
record. He was named national Coach of the Year after guiding the Cougars to
the 2007 NCAA tournament. Bennett and WSU returned to the ‘Dance’ in 2008
advancing to the Sweet Sixteen.
The Series
The series dates
back to the 1935-36 season when Virginia took the first meeting 45-34. Overall,
the Cavs lead the series and are 39-17 at home. Virginia won last year’s
meeting 49-47 as both teams let the
air out of the ball.
Trends
It’s no secret that if
you shoot well from the field, you usually win. Such is the case with Virginia, who are 14-0 this season when making 40% (or more) from the field. On
the flip side, Virginia has held four opponents under 30% shooting this season
and has held nine opponents under 50 points.
Clemson is 2-9 ATS
overall in its last nine games while Virginia is 10-4 vs. the number in its
past 14 contests. The Cavaliers are a whopping 13-2 to the ‘under’ this season
and 20-6 in their last 26 home games.
The underdog has
covered in 11 of the last 16 series meetings.
Harvey’s
Take: This game figures to be heavy on the defense and light in the scoring.
Barring overtime, this game should stay well ‘under’ the total.
Go low tonight and good luck!