NCAA Basketball Picks: Duke vs. Clemson

Thirty-five months can sometimes feel like an eternity, but you can bet that a visit to Littlejohn Coliseum roughly that long ago remains fresh on the mind of Duke's Mike Krzyzewski. 

It was on this floor in early-February 2009 that the Blue Devils suffered one of their worst defeats in the Coach K era. Favored by four against a Clemson squad that was ranked No. 10 in the country, third-ranked Duke was thoroughly spanked by the Tigers, 74-47. The loss snapped a 20-game regular season win streak over Clemson, and Duke struggled to regain its footing the next 10 days by dropping two of the next three contests. 

Duke has since started another streak against the Tigers, albeit a modest 3-game stretch now as the teams prepare to battle Sunday evening in Clemson (6 PM ET). Sunday's NCAA basketball odds started with Duke -7, and 134.5 for the NCAA basketball betting total. The line has shortened to 6 at most sportsbooks while the total remains unchanged. 

Lets decide which of these lines holds the best sports betting value in tonight's matchup. 

The Blue Devils just stopped Virginia's 12-game win streak in an intensely defensive battle at home on Thursday, falling well short of covering the 10½-point spread in the 61-58 victory. Known more for offense, Duke turned instead to defense to register the latest win. The Cavaliers had two chances in the final 13 seconds to tie the game, but 3-point tries were off the mark just as they had been the entire second half when Virginia missed all 11 attempts from beyond the arc. 

Duke did shoot an efficient 52.2% from the field, though the 61 points marked a season-low output for a team that is 11th in the country, averaging nearly 81 per game. Scoring stats always figure to decrease for clubs once conference play begins, especially in the tough ACC, but the Blue Devils' scoring average wouldn't have fallen off that much if they hadn't shot so poorly from long-range (5 for 20), or from the free-throw line where Duke converted just 8 of 19 foul shots. Mason Plumlee's 2 for 10 performance from the charity stripe was especially awful, and could have cost Duke the game had the Cavs been able to find the net just a couple more times. 

Some of Duke's trouble on the offensive end can certainly be attributed to a very fine Virginia defense, but truth be told, scoring had already become a bit of a problem for the Blue Devils before the Cavaliers arrived in Durham. Specifically, the backcourt has not been contributing as much to the offense as earlier this season. Austin Rivers and Seth Curry each put up 11 in the win over the Cavs, hitting a respectable 9 of 17 from the field, but they struggled from outside the arc where they went 2 for 9. 

Andre Dawkins added 10 off the bench, the most he's scored in six games, but once again he struggled to find his mark, 3 of 7 overall and just 2 of 6 from 3-point land. 

The good news is that Duke might not need to break out on offense against a Clemson squad that has been a bit impotent this campaign and ranks in the bottom half of the nation averaging about 64 points per game. Brad Brownell, in just his second season at the Tigers' helm, is more defensive minded, however, and the Tigers have responded well to his schemes with one of the stingiest groups in the country. Clemson is allowing less than 58 points per game while limiting opponents to just 0.91 points per possession, the latter good enough for 39th in the country. 

Brownell's bunch will definitely need to deliver more of an offensive effort than what the Tigers showed in their last game. Clemson was giving up nine points on the road at Boston College, who stands a good shot of finishing at the very bottom of the ACC standings, and the Tigers laid an egg on Chestnut Hill with the Eagles pulling off a 59-57 upset. Clemson's frontcourt was particularly awful in that game, and with the exception of a few contests overall, the Tigers have not been able to pose a threat from outside. 

Duke not only holds a commanding edge in this series all-time, the Blue Devils also have a solid mark here at Littlejohn Coliseum over the years. The lads from Durham are 19-9 in this building under Krzyzewski, winning 10 of the last 11 trips to Clemson.

Taking a Chance: We're dealing with a couple of teams that have been drains on their backers' wallets. Duke has failed to cover three straight, and five of the last seven, while Clemson is just 3-8 ATS on the 2011-12 schedule to date. As always, the line on the Blue Devils is inflated, but -7 sounds fair for this one. Let's go for a daily double, taking Duke laying seven and the UNDER as well. 

My pick is Blue Devils, 71-62.