The Tennessee Volunteers have notched a 2-1-1 spread record in their last four games, with the 'under' also going 2-1-1. Cuonzo Martin's squad heads south for Thursday night’s matchup against the No. 20 Mississippi State Bulldogs, who are 4-2 ATS in their last six 'board' battles at home.
Sportsbooks opened Mississippi State as a 7.5 point favorite,
remaining unchanged after early NCAA basketball betting action was mixed. NCAA basketball odds makers
first set the ‘total’ at 139, with initial ‘under’ wagers dropping the number
to 138 at several sports betting shops.
Volunteers upset Gators at home
Tennessee pulled away in Saturday’s 67-56 victory as a 7.5 point
home dog against the Florida Gators. The Volunteers hit 51 percent of
their field buckets, while holding Florida to 35.7 percent shooting.
Volunteers forward Kenny Hall notched a team-high 13 points off
the bench, adding five boards in his 24 minutes on the floor. Hall’s mate
Trae Golden drained 2-of-3 from three-point land, while finishing with seven of
his squad’s 15 assists.
The contest’s combined 123 points plunged below the ‘total’ of
146. Tennessee was edged out in boards, 35-32, while both squads united
to sink 21-of-36 free throws.
Bulldogs unable to rally in Arkansas
Mississippi State began January’s SEC campaign with Saturday’s
98-88 loss as a one-point road dog against the Arkansas Razorbacks. The
Bulldogs allowed Arkansas to connect at 56.5 percent from the field, while
unable to overcome an 18-9 turnover ratio.
Bulldogs guard Deville Smith piled in 25 points, including a
3-for-3 night beyond the arc. Smith’s mate Arnett Moultrie logged a
team-high 10 rebounds, while finishing with nine points to nearly pick up a
second straight double-double.
The high-octane affair’s combined 186 points soared above the
‘total’ of 144, lifting the ‘over’ to 5-2 in the Bulldogs’ last seven ‘board’
games. Mississippi State drained 9-of-20 buckets from three-point land,
while hitting 25-of-31 from the foul line.
Back the Bulldogs as home ‘chalk’
Tonight's matchup is scheduled to tip-off at 9 p.m. (ET), with ESPN2 providing
the national television coverage.
I am placing my NCAA basketball pick in favor of Mississippi State, laying the points
at home and looking for a bounce back after Saturday’s loss. The Bulldogs
are 5-2-2 ATS in their last nine contests that followed a defeat, dating back
to 2010, while needing a big showing here to preserve their national ranking.
Mississippi State’s Arnett Moultrie and Dee Bost are two of the
SEC’s top five scorers, piling in 16.2 PPG each. The duo is also ranked
among the conference’s top five in shooting, assists, rebounding, and
steals. Moultrie has hit 55.6 percent from the field and hauled in 11.3
RPG, while Bost has logged a sizable 4.3 APG and 2.3 SPG.
Tennessee is 0-3 ATS in its last three road games, with Saturday’s
upset of Florida deflating the squad’s value even further here. The
Volunteers have gone 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games against teams with winning
records, including 1-6 ATS in its last seven road spots against foes with
winning records at home.
Mississippi State is 3-1 ATS in its last four meetings against
Tenneessee, dating back to 2009. Last February’s 70-69 win for the
Bulldogs saw them collect as an 11-point road dog, with Bost noching 14 points
and 10 assists for a double-double.
Look for the Bulldogs to cash again here, with Mississippi State
shooting 48.1 percent on its home floor and holding visiting foes to 63.6 PPG.
My Pick: Mississippi State