NCAA Basketball Picks: Texas vs. Texas A&M

Both teams now find themselves in panic mode for consideration to get an at-large NCAA Tournament bid. Texas has posted a 14-9 mark with a 4-6 Big-12 conference record. Texas A&M is 12-10 overall and is just 3-7 in Big-12 action. A loss by either team seals their fate to a possible NIT bid. Texas is the superior team and I believe they will comfortably win this game and keep their Tournament hopes alive.

The College Basketball Betting Line

The NCAA Basketball odds for this game opened with Texas installed as a 2.5 point favorite, but early sports betting action has since moved it to Texas favored by three points. Although there have been nearly equal action on both sides, the line movement reflects the sharps are starting to pound the Longhorns. I think the sooner you place you NCAA Basketball picks, the better, as I fully expect this line to steadily climb over the course of the afternoon.

The Simulator Projections

My proprietary NCAA Basketball handicapping simulator and statistical database shows a high probability that Texas will win this game by six or more points. Texas defense will be solid tonight and the simulator shows a high probability that they will contain Texas A&M to fewer than 66 points in this game. In past games, Texas is a solid 41-22 ATS making 16.8 units per one unit wagered when they allow 61 to 66 points in a game since 1997. 

Supporting System

Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a 38-13 mark for 75% winners since 2006. Play against a dog after successfully covering the spread in five or more consecutive games and with a winning percentage of between 45 to 55% on the season.

Of the 51 plays made based on the criteria of this system, 17 of the plays or 34% covered the spread by seven or more points. This system has produced a solid 25-7 ATS mark spanning the past three seasons. 

Matchups Favor Texas

Texas ranks 52^nd in the nation scoring an average of 74.0 points per game and ranks 41^st in scoring margin at 8.9 points per game. Texas A&M ranks 20^th defensively allowing 60.0 points per game, but are 141^st in scoring margin at -1.8 points per game. That is a key point as A&M must play a slow-down style of basketball to methodically plod through the first 30 minutes and look to a chance to win the game down the final stretch of the game.

Rebounding is one of the most important handicapping statistics in basketball, and Texas has a huge edge in this category. Texas ranks 42^nd in the nation, getting an average of 37.6 boards per game. By comparison, the Aggies rank 111^th in the nation, getting an average of 35.5 boards per game.

To take this one step further, strong rebounding prevents an opponent from getting an abundance of second chance scoring opportunities. Moreover, Texas has the speed and quickness to use Aggie missed shots to generate fast break scoring opportunities in transition.

Even in the half-court sets, I strongly believe you will see Texas work the ball around the perimeter and look to get the ball into the paint. If the Aggies double team the post, then the perimeter will be wide open for the Longhorns. The key stat is that the A&M defense struggles when facing a team that works the ball in the half court set allowing a 0.537 ratio of opponent assists to field goals made ranking 172^nd in the nation.

Game Situation

As mentioned A&M has a solid defense statistically speaking, but is in large part helped by their slower paced style of offense. Texas has done very well against similar teams and have posted a 11-2 ATS mark in road games versus good defensive teams - allowing 64 or fewer points per game over the last three seasons.

Take the Texas Longhorns as a 5* graded Titan play.