The No. 4 Louisville Cardinals are unbeaten in their first 11 games, with a 4-3-1 spread record in eight ‘board’ battles. Rick Pitino’s troops continue a lengthy home stand as part of Friday’s college hoops slate against the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers, who are 2-3 ATS in their five December duels.
Sportsbooks opened Louisville as a 26-point home favorite with the ‘total’ at 132 ½ posted on the college basketball odds boards. Early NCAA basketball betting action has pushed the total down to 25 at most shops. ESPN2 is slated to provide national
television coverage of the contest, tipping at 7 p.m. (ET).
Cardinals rally against Charleston
Louisville’s latest win came in Tuesday’s 69-62 victory as an
18-point home favorite against the Charleston Cougars. The Cardinals
trailed at halftime, 37-33, while sinking a meager 7-of-16 at the foul line.
Cardinals guard Kyle Kuric notched a team-high 17 points, playing
40 minutes. Kuric’s mates Gorgui Dieng and Russ Smith logged five blocks
and steals, respectively, helping to hold Charleston to 38.5 percent field shooting.
The contest’s combined 131 points dipped below the ‘total’ of 139,
bringing the ‘under’ to 6-2 in the Cardinals’ first eight ‘board’ games. Louisville’s Peyton Silva struggled from the field, shooting 0-for-5, while
logging six of the team’s 12 assists.
Hilltoppers out-topped at home
Western Kentucky logged a second straight defeat in Saturday’s
76-63 loss as a 4 ½-point home favorite against the Furman Paladins. The
Hilltoppers were held to 36.7 percent field shooting, while knocking down
12-of-25 free throws.
Hilltoppers guard Derrick Gordon nearly had a double-double,
finishing with team-highs of 12 points and nine assists. Gordon’s mate
George Fant logged three of his squad’s seven steals, while T.J. Price and
Kahlil McDonals united to drain 6-of-18 from beyond the arc.
The duel’s combined 139 points leaped above the ‘total’ of 133 ½,
lifting the ‘over’ to 2-0 in the Hilltoppers’ last pair of games. Western
Kentucky allowed Furman to hit 51.2 percent from the field, including 7-of-11
from three-point land.
Back the ‘under’ in this mismatch
I am adding the ‘under’ to my NCAA basketball picks in this matchup, looking
for Louisville to put this away quickly and ‘garbage time’ to start
early. The Cardinals have bigger games slated next week against the No.
16 Georgetown Hoyas and No. 3 Kentucky Wildcats, tipping on Dec. 28 and Dec.
31, respectively.
Western Kentucky ranks 11th out of the 12-team Sun Belt
Conference in scoring, putting up 60 PPG. The trip to Louisville won’t
make it any easier for the Hilltoppers, with the Cardinals allowing jut 57 PPG
at home.
Louisville’s Smith (2.5 SPG) and Silva (1.9 SPG) both rank in the
Big East Conference’s top 10 for steals, while Dieng is the conference leader
for blocks (2.9 BPG). Western Kentucky should grab its share of boards,
averaging a fourth-best 35.9 RPG in the Sun Belt.
Both squads have shot under 70 percent from the free throw line,
which should keep points off the board if this becomes a physical battle. Late fouling should also be unlikely with Louisville’s high margin of victory
expected.
The ‘under’ is 10-1 in Louisville’s last 11 home games as a
favorite of 13 points or more, while cashing at 8-2 in the team’s last 10
non-conference games. Western Kentucky has seen the ‘under’ collect at
8-3 in its most recent 11 non-conference clashes, while the same wager has gone
10-2 in the squad’s last 12 matchups as an underdog.
Take
the ‘under’ again here, with the Cardinals calling off the dogs late and the
Hilltoppers likely to get shut down throughout the affair.
My Pick: Take the 'Under'